POWER: Swiss Hydro Stocks Rise Above 5-Year Avg for First Time This Year
Oct-01 08:11
Swiss hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 39 – increased by 2.2 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity, switching to a surplus to the five-year average for the first time this year, BFE data showed.
- Stocks declined by an average of 0.1 points in the past five years.
- Reserves switched to a surplus to the five-year average of 1.5 points for the first time this year, compared with a deficit of 0.9 points the week before.
- Stocks also switched to a surplus to last year’s levels of 3.8 points, from 0.8 points the week prior.
- Power demand in Switzerland last week increased by 411MW to 7.25GW.
- Swiss hydropower generation from pumped storage last week rose by 387MW to 1.05GW. Output from reservoirs increased by 400MW to 1.44GW, while run-of-river generation rose by 640MW to 2.36GW.
- Nuclear generation in Switzerland last week increased by 201MW to 1.58GW.
- Alpiq’s 1.02GW Gogsen nuclear power plant will be offline until 28 February 2026, while Axpo’s 365MW Beznau 2 reactor is scheduled to return on 3 October.
- Precipitation in Sion, in the hydro-intensive canton of Valais, last week totalled 6.1mm, below the seasonal average of 37.9mm.
- Looking ahead, the latest Bloomberg ECMWF weather forecast for Sion suggests precipitation to rise to 15.1mm this week, below the seasonal average of 40.4mm.
- The latest Swiss hydro balance is forecast to end this week at 45GWh. The balance is forecast to narrow to 443GWh as of 15 October.
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GILTS: Goldman Sachs: Gilt 2s5s To Steepen Further
Sep-01 08:07
Late on Friday Goldman Sachs noted that “gilts underperformed other major bond markets in August, following upside surprises to inflation and activity data”.
- They go on to write that “BoE Governor Bailey repeated the risk of inflation persistence, and the concern that low productivity growth and labour supply weakness necessitates restrictive policy. At the same time, ongoing weakening on the demand side of the labour market is a reminder of the downside skew of risks to the policy rate. We believe that disinflation in 2H25 will ultimately allow for deeper BoE cuts, but the onus is for the upcoming inflation data to give signs that inflation persistence is fading (the next inflation release comes on September 17)”.
- As a result, Goldman Sachs recommend 2s5s gilt curve steepeners given their base case for “deeper cuts, as well as the possibility that terminal rate expectations may be revised higher if data remains resilient”.
- Furthermore, their model suggests 2s5s screens flat vs. macro factors.
AUD: FX Exchange Option
Sep-01 08:07
FX Exchange traded Option, Risk Reversal:
- AUDUSD (5th Dec) 64/67.5RR, bought the put for 0.17 in 1k.
Doesn't cover the last RBA 9th December meeting for this Year.
MNI: EUROZONE AUG MANUF PMI 50.7 (50.5 FLASH, 49.8 JUL)
Sep-01 08:00
- MNI: EUROZONE AUG MANUF PMI 50.7 (50.5 FLASH, 49.8 JUL)
