POWER: Swiss Hydro Stock Widen Deficit to 5-Year Avg to Highest Since Late May
Swiss hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 48 – declined by 3.4 percentage points to 66.1% of capacity, widening the deficit to the five-year average to the highest since late May, BFE data showed.
- Stocks declined by 2.4 percentage points the week prior.
- The deficit to last year’s level narrowed slightly to 2.5 points, from 2.8 points the week prior.
- The deficit to the five-year average widened to 9.6 points, from 9.1 points the week prior.
- Stocks also widened the deficit to the ten-year average to 7.1 points, from 5.6 points the previous week.
- Power demand in Switzerland last week was broadly stable at 8.4GW.
- Swiss hydropower generation from pumped storage was largely stable at 1.05GW, as well as output from reservoirs at 1.48GW. Run-of-river generation edged higher last week by 108MW to 1.36GW.
- Nuclear generation in Switzerland was stable last week at 1.95GW.
- Alpiq’s 1.02 GW Gösgen nuclear power plant will be offline until 28 February 2026.
- Precipitation in Sion, in the hydro-intensive canton of Valais, stood at 28.7mm last week, largely in line with the 30-year normal.
- Snow height at L’Ecreuleuse in canton Valais stood at 149cm as of 2 December, with 31cm of new snow in the past seven days, White Risk data showed.
- Looking ahead, the latest Bloomberg ECMWF weather forecast for Sion suggests precipitation to decrease this week to 15.2mm, compared with the seasonal normal at 27.1mm.
- Power demand was forecast to average 7.88GWh/h this week, Reuters data showed on 30 November.
- The latest Swiss hydro balance is forecast to end this week at -2.78TWh. The balance will further narrow to -3TWh as of 17 December.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
