POWER: Sweden's 1.1GW Forsmark 1 Nuke Faces Curtailments Again

• RES 4: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 6900.50 High Nov 12
• RES 2: 6735.63/6791.25 20-day EMA / High Nov 20
• RES 1: 6677.50 High Nov 21    
• PRICE: 6653.25 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 6525.00 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 2: 6500.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2  

S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and weakness last week reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 6476.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6735.63, the 20-day EMA.

The upward trend in general public credit growth that began in January has stalled, given Norges Bank’s more hawkish than expected outlook through the course of this year. Combined with a fading impulse from the offshore sector, constrained business credit growth may weigh on Norwegian activity in 2026, potentially necessitating more cuts than signalled in the September MPR. The Q3 GDP report is due on Wednesday, with mainland GDP consensus at 0.2% Q/Q, two tenths below Norges Bank's projection. 

• Norwegian credit growth was 3.9% Y/Y in October for the second consecutive month.
• Non-financial corporation credit growth remained at 1.7% Y/Y (an eight-month low), while household credit growth was unchanged at 4.4% Y/Y.
• Municipal government borrowing is ~10% of total public credit. It’s also the most volatile, printing at 7.4% Y/Y in October (vs 6.9% in September, 8.3% in August). 

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.05 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 24 
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The move down last week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.