BUNDS: /SWAPS: ASWs Through Support Zones But Move Stalls

• EURCHF strength is standing out on Tuesday, with the pair rising 0.45% on the session and extending its three-week recovery to around 2.5%. Notably, spot is back above 0.9200 and is now approaching the prior breakdown point at 0.9210, a technically significant pivot point dating back to August 2024. 
• As a reminder, the March SNB meeting had a dovish tilt, with a marginally downwardly revised medium-term inflation forecast, forceful language against CHF appreciation and Schlegel not ruling out negative rates in the press conference.
• Subsequent commentary from officials reiterated the greater readiness to intervene in FX and when asked if the central bank had already intervened, the response was to await the quarterly data on the matter, which will be released in June.
• These dynamics may have helped bolster the latest EURCHF recovery. The following levels represent the next topside targets for the move:
  • RES 1. 0.9238 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Mar 9 bear leg
  • RES 2. 0.9298 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Mar 9 bear leg
  • RES 3. 0.9350 - High Jan 14

Retail sales rose 6.9% Y/Y in the week ending March 28, per the Johnson Redbook Index, accelerating from the 6.7% posted the prior week. That brings month-to-date gains to 6.6% Y/Y, up a little from the 6.5% in the prior week, albeit slightly below the very strong 6.8% in February and retailers' targeted 7.4% rise.

• Once again, along with a strong Y/Y figure there was no mention in the anecdotals of weaker sentiment or changed consumer behavior against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East and the resultant energy price shock.
• "Amazon kicked off its 2026 Big Spring Sale from March 25 to March 31, offering deals on seasonal items, spring clothing, electronics, cleaning, and gardening products. Other retailers followed suit with promotions across all categories to attract shoppers and clear out inventories."
• Wednesday brings February's advance Census Bureau retail sales report, which is seen posting steady Y/Y Control Group gains vs January (0.3% M/M); that would bring Y/Y Control Group sales to roughly 4.0%, down from 4.9% in January, once again marking a (negative) gap with the Redbook series though that's nothing new.

• MNI:US JAN FHFA HPI SA +0.1% V +0.3% DEC; +1.6% Y/Y