TURKEY: Survey Shows Year-End Inflation Sticky, But Drifting Lower in 12 Months
- A survey of market participants shows that inflation estimates for the coming 12 months have fallen to 22.84%, with the 24-month estimate dropping to 16.92%. The year-end forecast sits at 29.69%. On that note, Dunya write this morning that "Our inflation expectations remained unchanged following the inflation report meeting. There is a high probability that inflation will be in the 28%-29% range by the end of 2025. Our expectation for the end of 2026 is currently 20%, very close to the upper end of the central bank forecast."
- Relatedly, Oksijen write that data suggests Turkey are to grow at a faster pace in Q2 relative to Q1, which should prove encouraging for both business and industry. As a result, there is concern over the 2026 inflation forecast of 12-18%, concluding that "it would be good" if inflation instead reaches the 20-25% range.
- Treasury data on budget balance for July is set for release later this morning. A CHP rally is set to take place in Kirsehir this evening.
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SWEDEN: June PES Data Indicates Labour Market Conditions Are Still Subdued
The Swedish unemployment claims rate ticked up a tenth to 7.1% on a rounded basis in June, after seven consecutive months at 7.0%. Labour demand metrics within the report improved slightly relative to May, but the broader signal is still that the labour market is subdued. This will likely contribute to one more Riksbank cut this year, with analysts generally leaning towards a move in September. However, it is still too early to fully rule out a cut in August.
- Vacancies rose to 80k from 77k in May, but remain down 13% Y/Y. This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio was steady at 0.21, the lowest since March 2021.
- Redundancy notices fell back to 5.1k, after rising notably to 7.9k in May. Some analysts had pointed to the Northvolt bankruptcy as a potential driver of the May increase. Still, the 3mma of redundancies remains at 6.2k, above the 4.8-5.2k seen between December and April.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3749 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3707 @ 08:02 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD is trading at its recent highs. Short-term gains appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3749. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
GILTS: Futures Called To Open Lower After CPI
Desks calling futures in the 91.25-35 range at the open after CPI.
