US DATA: Surprisingly Healthy Initial Jobless Claims

The jobless claims data were on balance a little better than expected. New claims hit their lowest single week since Feb’24 and with the four-week average not too far off at its lowest since April, but continuing claims surprised a touch higher. It looks like the trend of companies managing headcount through slower rehiring rather than layoffs is still intact. 

• Initial jobless claims surprised lower at 201k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Jan 4 after an unrevised 211k.
• The four-week average fell 10k to 213k, its lowest since Apr’24 and through the 2019 average.
• Continuing claims on the other hand were a little higher than expected at 1867k (sa, cons 1860k) in the week to Dec 28 after a downward revised 1834k (initial 1844k).
• Timing of the festive period can make seasonal adjustment difficult but the non-seasonally adjusted 305k is at the low end of recent years.  
• Note that by state, the 22.4k increase in NY (which drove the 21.3k increase in national claims) to 37.5k was in keeping with typical starts to the year.