SPAIN DATA: Surprising Fall In Dec Manuf PMI Offset By Rise In Future Confidence
The Spanish manufacturing PMI surprisingly fell into contractionary territory in December (49.6 vs 51.2 cons, 51.5 prior). This was the lowest (and first sub-50) reading since April.
Although the details point to weak demand trends in December, the uptick in year-ahead confidence provides some offset. Spain has been the Eurozone economic outperformer across the last two years, and current Bloomberg consensus looks for that to continue in 2026 – albeit by a smaller margin than in 2025.
Key notes from the release:
- “Concurrent drops in output and new orders were recorded in December, the first such falls since April and May respectively. There were reports of a deterioration in demand during December, most noticeably from international clients”
- “Competitive pressures led firms to modestly reduce their output prices for a fourth successive month. Reduced input costs also afforded firms the opportunity to cut selling prices.”
- “Job losses were meanwhile recorded for the fourth successive month”
- “Manufacturers were nonetheless confident in the outlook, with sentiment overall improving to its highest level since May 2024”
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SWITZERLAND DATA: CPI Details Confirms Downside Centred Around Housing / Hotels
Looking at the details of the Swiss CPI print shows the following:
- Unrounded headline CPI was 0.02% (down from 0.10% in October, a 0.08ppt slowdown).
- Housing rentals contributed -0.05pp to the change in headline CPI (this only updates quarterly and is likely to remain persistent)
- Hospitality also contributed -0.05ppt to the change in headline CPI (coming from hotels, volatile package holidays playing only a minor part)
- Food and energy both contributed around +0.02ppt each, to partially offset this.
- These were the major drivers, for detailed calculations, see chart / table below.
What remains on net is a soft print which, while by itself is very unlikely to prompt an SNB cut into negative territory, warrants further monitoring. This applies especially as the downside this time was centred around domestic categories - which the SNB has flagged previously when looking at underlying inflationary pressures. Having said that, what's not quite so clear is their stance on the housing slowdown, with some previous comments suggesting that they merely view it as a lagged function of headline which may imply less feedthrough to policy. Also, we don't know what number they had pencilled in for rentals, either. So it's hard to know if this is the driver of the surprise, or if it is more broad based.
CHF saw a limited reaction to the release.
MNI: SPAIN NOV SERV PMI 55.6 (56.3 FCAST, 56.6 OCT)
- MNI: SPAIN NOV SERV PMI 55.6 (56.3 FCAST, 56.6 OCT)
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: $58.947 - High Dec 1
- PRICE: $58.050 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $52.607 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $49.583/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish - price has traded to a fresh all-time high this week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $52.607, the 20-day EMA.
