OIL PRODUCTS: Surprise Dangote Outage Length Keeps Gasoline Supported
Gasoline cracks are seeing support from an extended outage at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Diesel cracks are slightly lower, but remain strong overall following the announcement of maintenance at the Pernis refinery earlier in the week.
- Dangote refinery’s gasoline unit has been offline since Aug 29, contributing to tighter Atlantic Basin gasoline supply, Reuters reported yesterday evening.
- The gasoline unit at Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote refinery may be shut for 2-3 months for repairs, Reuters reports citing IIR. Previously, 2 weeks had been reported.
- Oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany's PCK refinery are expected to return to normal by the end of this week following repairs, according to Rosneft Germany cited by Reuters.
- Singapore total oil inventories surge by 4.1kbbl to the highest since December at 51.64mbbl in the week to Sep. 3, according to Enterprise data cited by Bloomberg.
- EIA data showed US motor gasoline stocks drew by 3.795m bbl to 218.54m bbl in the seven days to Aug. 29, a 1.71% fall week-on-week. US distillate stocks built by 1.681m bbl to 115.92m bbl in the seven days to Aug. 29, a 1.5% rise week-on-week.
- Gasoline stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub rose sharply by 16%, data from Insights Global showed on Thursday.
- US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 20.97$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.6$/bbl at 34.39$/bbl
- EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.5$/bbl at 14.37$/bbl
- EU Gasoil-Brent down 0.5$/bbl at 23.83$/bbl
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: 10Y Note Sale, Fed Speak
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/06 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.8%, --)
- 08/06 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 08/06 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CNT4)
- 08/06 1400 Fed Gov Cook & Boston Fed Collins panel event (no text, Q&A)
- 08/06 1610 SF Fed Daly moderated discussion eco-summit
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Signals A Bullish Turn
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8703 @ 16:48 BST Aug 5
- SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8597. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.
US-CHINA: Americans Increasingly Want To Find Areas Of Agreement w/China
Semafor reports: “Americans are starting to think more positively about China, according to new polling from the think tank Third Way... Since 2023, the share of Americans who view China as an “enemy” dropped by seven percentage points, while the share who see it as an “ally or trade partner” grew by eight percentage points.”
- Semafor notes: “A majority of respondents also said they wanted to cooperate and find “areas of agreement” with China, up from 32% in 2023. Third Way conducted the poll in May, after Trump had begun his first round of aggressive tariffs on Beijing.”
- Third Way wrote in a memo: “Americans aren’t softening on China because they hold the country and its leaders in high regard. But they have become more aware of the role China plays in their daily lives and, as a result, have become more hesitant to use blunt force.”
Figure 1: US Perceptions of China (Americans’ Preferences for Dealing with China)
Source: Semafor, Third Way
