PERU: Supreme Court Sentences Former President Castillo To Prison

The questions that we have selected for Instant Answers for the October FOMC statement (scheduled to be released at 1400ET) are:

• Fed funds rate range maximum
• Interest Rate Paid On Reserve Balances
• Number of dissenters to size of rate move
• Number of dissenters preferring a larger cut
• Does the Fed change its QT plan? 

• Renewed pessimism for GBP has been on show Tuesday, amid increasing signs that UK Chancellor Reeves will have to raise income tax at the November 26 budget to fill a widening fiscal hole. Furthermore, the FT reported yesterday evening that the OBR is expected to cut its trend productivity forecast by a larger-than-expected 0.3pp, providing an additional sterling headwind.
• While GBPUSD is down 0.42% on the day, EURGBP has had a more notable 0.6% move, rising to the highest level since 2023. Momentum picked up on a break of key resistance at 0.8769, and a close above this level would bolster bullish trend conditions. Topside targets for the move include 0.8835 and 0.8875, the April 2023 high.
• Strength for the major equity indices have weighed significantly on the likes of GBPAUD (through 2.0244 to print new multi-month lows) and GBPCAD (through 1.8561 to new multi-week lows). For AUDUSD specifically, Tuesday gains put the price through 0.6574 Fib resistance, tilting the near-term outlook bullish toward 0.6629 next, a key short-term level.
• Despite two-way price action for USDJPY across the European and US sessions, the pair is holding onto initial losses that were sustained during APAC hours. The positive yen impulse was provided by optimism surrounding official US-Japan talks. Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized the need for sound monetary policy to keep inflation expectations anchored and avoid FX volatility.
• USDJPY is currently down 0.45%, with the 151.76 session lows marking a 1% correction from yesterday’s highs of 153.26. First important support to watch lies at 151.09, the 20-day EMA.
• Australia Q3 CPI headlines the economic data calendar on Wednesday, before the focus turns to BOC and Fed rate decisions.

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1676/1728 High Oct 20 / 17 and key resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1658 @ 15:52 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.1577/42 Low Oct 22 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

Support in EURUSD remains intact. The level to watch is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. A break of this support is required to cancel a recent bullish signal and this would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Sep 17. A breach would open 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement, and expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to strengthen a bull theme.