GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3377.4 - High Jul 16
- PRICE: 3337.3 @ 07:24 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
Gold is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
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WTI TECHS: (N5) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13
- PRICE: $74.47 @ 07:17 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
- SUP 2: $63.94 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30
- SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and last Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- PRICE: $3382.2 @ 07:25 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: $3344.8/3271.7 - 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3271.7, the 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: The US FOMC is at the forefront Today
- There's very little change for Bund, the contract was again mostly flat pre Cash Open, and trading near Yesterday's mid range.
- The Globe awaits the FOMC later today, expected to keep its Rate unchanged.
- The UK Inflation Data was close to inline, the German Bund did tick lower on the Release, but what we have witnessed of late, is Cash sellers on the open, Bund has bounced back off the low of 130.58, and is now above Cash Opening levels.
- Support is unchanged for Bund, on the chart it shows at 130.12, but more importantly, the 2.60% Yield, which is around ~130.07.
- Resistance moves up to 131.47.
- With the UK CPI out of the way, EU CPI will be final reading, so the Focus is on the US IJC, which has been moved to today because of Juneteenth Tomorrow.
- SUPPLY: Germany 20s, 30s (equates to combined 17k Buxl) should weigh into the longer end given the lower liquidity.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Elderson, Panetta, Escriva, Villeroy, Knot, Nagel, Centeno, but don't expect anything new. The Focus is squarely on Fed Chair Powell Today.
