GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• As to be expected, not too much change for the German Bund contract with the Street fully focused on the US CPI Today, the main Data release for the Week.
• While negotiations between the US and China on de escalation of the Trade War, with a preliminary plan to resolve issues of rare Earth shipments are still ongoing, a Federal appeal Court decided that Trump can continue enforcing his Global Tariffs for now, as such uncertainty in Trade Wars remain.
• Technically for Bund, the initial resistance of 131.00 is still holding for now, above the latter would open to 131.28, followed by 131.50.
• Small support moves up to 130.52, although most could look at 130.37, Yesterday's low, but the near term key level is still at the 2.60% mark in Yield, this equated circa 130.10s for the the past couple of sessions.
• There's only the ECB Wage tracker this Morning, but unlikely to move the needle, it is all about the US Inflation Today.
• SUPPLY: UK £4.25bn 2035 (equates to 36.5k Gilt) will weigh, Germany €3bn Bund (equates to only 24k Bund) should have no real impact, Portugal 10s, 30s (too small, won't impact Bund at least). US sells $39bn of 10yr Reopening.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Makhlouf, Cipollone, but with the continued uncertainty in Tariff Wars don't expect anything too new.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 121.37 High Jun 9 
• PRICE: 121.19 @ Close Jun 10 
• SUP 1: 120.24 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

A bullish condition in BTP futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.24 the 20-day EMA.

• The text of BOE ED of Markets Saporta’s speech will be published this morning at 7:30BST here and will cover monetary policy implementation.
• As the TFLS and gilt portfolio continues to be wound down, demand for reserves has been stable around GBP700bln for around 3-months now despite some large gilt redemptions (including a large one over the past few days). Usage of the STR has continued to increase, and will continue to be watched in coming weeks ahead of the BOE’s decision on how much to wind down the APF over the October 2025 to September 2026 period (which will likely be made at the September MPC meeting).
• The latest estimate in the April BOE Market Participants Survey was that the APF would be reduced in sized by GBP75bln (which would see active sales pick up versus this year but a smaller total reduction than this year’s GBP100bln).
• We will be looking for any steer ahead of that and will also be looking to see whether Saporta sticks to the BOE’s central view that the Preferred Minimum Reserve Range (PMRR) is between GBP345-490bln (or GBP385-530bln as Mann said in a recent speech).