USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3712/3792 Intraday high / High Jun 11
- PRICE: 1.3688 @ 08:07 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 1.3626/3590 Low Jun 25 / Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD maintains a short-term bearish tone. Price has recently traded through the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. The break signals scope for a continuation lower, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. Clearance of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The medium-term trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
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USDCAD TECHS: Support Is Intact But Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3628 @ 07:55 BST May 28
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact and for now a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Key supports at 1.3642, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, have recently been pierced. A clear break of both levels is required to threaten the bullish theme and this would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
BONDS: Roll pace for Treasuries and Gilt
Bond futures rolls should continue to dominate in Treasuries and Gilt.
First notice for the US is the 31th, while Gilt is the 30th.
Pace:
- Ultra Bond: 51%.
- Tbond: 51%.
- Ultra 10: 48%.
- Tnotes: 52%.
- FVA: 53%.
- TUA: 50%
- Gilt: 58%.
STIR: Euribor Futures Little Changed With Focus On German Inflation Tomorrow
Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, while ECB-dated OIS shows 62bps of ’24 cuts (in line with yesterday afternoon's levels).
- Regional focus remains on the May flash inflation round, which begins tomorrow with data from Germany. MNI’s full inflation preview will be released later today.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with ECB consumer inflation expectations due at 0900BST.
- Overnight, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel spoke on the benefits and costs of asset purchases. Full speech link here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp240528~a4f151497d.en.html
- ECB’s Centeno and Knot are scheduled to speak later today.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.678 | -23.3 |
| Jul-24 | 3.647 | -26.4 |
| Sep-24 | 3.483 | -42.8 |
| Oct-24 | 3.423 | -48.8 |
| Dec-24 | 3.295 | -61.6 |
