EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
- RES 2: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.1676/1728 High Oct 20 / 17 and key resistance
- PRICE: 1.1569 @ 13:30 GMT Oct 30
- SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
EURUSD is trading lower and is approaching support. The level to watch lies at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. A break would open 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. A move through 1.1516 would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to reinstate a bull theme.
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EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
US Cash Opening Calls, set for a flat Open.
- Fair values seen at: SPX: 6,664.5 (+0.0%); DJIA: 46,310 (-0.0%/-6pts); NDX: 24,641.3 (+0.1%).
ECB: Lagarde Repeats ECB "Well Placed" At 2%
Lagarde strikes a confident tone in her keynote speech in Helsinki today on "Trade wars and central banks: lessons from 2025". Link here, key highlights below:
- "With no retaliation and an appreciating exchange rate, tariffs have had little inflationary impact so far, with their adverse effects mainly limited to growth. Those effects, however, have been relatively moderate thanks to the domestic response."
- "I have said that we are in a good place [...] there are also three additional reasons why it applies to the current situation." She goes on to mention a lack of policy trade-offs because of little new inflationary pressures, inflation risks appearing contained, and the ECB being well placed at 2% to respond to new shocks as reasons.
- "For our part, we cannot pre-commit to any future rate path, whether one of action or inaction. We must remain agile, and ready to respond to the data as they come in."
- "We can take comfort in having overcome a large inflation shock after the pandemic, and in how the economy has coped so far with an upheaval in trade relations.
- "We must remain alert to the possibility that not all the consequences are visible today – and that new shocks may still lie ahead.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: German National Indeed Sees Higher Energy And Services
The main categories of the German national-level data show higher energy and services inflation, as expected following the state-level data out earlier today:
- Energy moved up as expected, to -0.7% (-0.7% MNI tracking, -2.4% prior) amid base effects.
- Services accelerated even more than we had thought, to 3.4% (3.3% MNI tracking), the first uptick after two consecutive prints at 3.1%. The Bundesbank sees the category continuing to rise towards the end of the year on the back of travel price base effects.
- This led core CPI to speed up to 2.8% Y/Y (2.8% MNI tracking, 2.7% prior). The category stood at 2.7% for three consecutive months previously.
- Food came in lower than before, meanwhile, at 2.1% Y/Y (MNI tracking was incl. alcoholic beverages and was also for a deceleration, 2.5% prior). This is the lowest rate since June. As mentioned previously, the category arguably stands under elevated scrutiny following a recent ECB post on its importance for inflation expectations.
