EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

US Cash Opening Calls, set for a flat Open.

• Fair values seen at: SPX: 6,664.5 (+0.0%); DJIA: 46,310 (-0.0%/-6pts); NDX: 24,641.3 (+0.1%).

Lagarde strikes a confident tone in her keynote speech in Helsinki today on "Trade wars and central banks: lessons from 2025". Link here, key highlights below: 

• "With no retaliation and an appreciating exchange rate, tariffs have had little inflationary impact so far, with their adverse effects mainly limited to growth. Those effects, however, have been relatively moderate thanks to the domestic response."
• "I have said that we are in a good place [...] there are also three additional reasons why it applies to the current situation." She goes on to mention a lack of policy trade-offs because of little new inflationary pressures, inflation risks appearing contained, and the ECB being well placed at 2% to respond to new shocks as reasons.
• "For our part, we cannot pre-commit to any future rate path, whether one of action or inaction. We must remain agile, and ready to respond to the data as they come in."
• "We can take comfort in having overcome a large inflation shock after the pandemic, and in how the economy has coped so far with an upheaval in trade relations.
• "We must remain alert to the possibility that not all the consequences are visible today – and that new shocks may still lie ahead.

The main categories of the German national-level data show higher energy and services inflation, as expected following the state-level data out earlier today:

• Energy moved up as expected, to -0.7% (-0.7% MNI tracking, -2.4% prior) amid base effects.
• Services accelerated even more than we had thought, to 3.4% (3.3% MNI tracking), the first uptick after two consecutive prints at 3.1%. The Bundesbank sees the category continuing to rise towards the end of the year on the back of travel price base effects.
• This led core CPI to speed up to 2.8% Y/Y (2.8% MNI tracking, 2.7% prior). The category stood at 2.7% for three consecutive months previously.
• Food came in lower than before, meanwhile, at 2.1% Y/Y (MNI tracking was incl. alcoholic beverages and was also for a deceleration, 2.5% prior). This is the lowest rate since June. As mentioned previously, the category arguably stands under elevated scrutiny following a recent ECB post on its importance for inflation expectations.