GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• RES 1: 1.3742 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3451 @ 16:36 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

Tuesday’s sell-off in GBPUSD undermines the recent bull theme. The pair has traded through a key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to reinstate a bull theme. Initial resistance is at 1.3742, the 20-day EMA.

Derek Thompson, co-author of the centre-left political policy book Abundance, writes on Substack that 2025 could be the first year on record in which the US population shrinks.

• Thompson writes: “This would be a historic first. For nearly 250 years, America has only known growth. According to our best estimates, the nation’s population expanded throughout the Civil War, despite the deaths of more than 700,000 Americans. It grew throughout the Spanish Flu, both World Wars, and countless bloody entanglements with other countries. Even COVID, which killed more than a million Americans, didn’t reverse the trend. But Trump’s immigration crackdown may accomplish what no war, plague, or calamity has ever done.”
• William Frey, at the Brookings Institution, said: “It’s certainly possible. My bet at the beginning of 2025 was that growth would be positive but very slow. But it’s certainly possible that the population could shrink this year.”
• Immigration remains by far Trump's best issue with voters. According to Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating on immigration (-3.3%) is significantly higher than his approval ratings on the economy (-12.5%), trade (-14.9%), and inflation (-22.4%). 

Figure 1: Annual Change in US Population

Source: American Enterprise Institute, Axios

• -9,549 TUZ5 104-09.62, post time bid at 1318:00ET, DV01 $397,000.
• The 2Y contract trades 104-06.5 last (+3.25)