EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

Italy and Greece are both still due to sell bills this week while France came to the market yesterday. We expect issuance to be E14.3bln in first round operations, down from E17.7bln last week.

• This morning, Italy will look to issue E6.5bln of the new 6-month Jan 30, 2026 BOT.
• Tomorrow morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E500mln of the new 13-week Oct 31, 2025 GTB.

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 27   
• PRICE: 5364.00 @ 06:21 BST Jul 29 
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8769 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8680 @ 06:33 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.8666/49 Low Jul 28 / 20- day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8581 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

EURGBP reversed sharply lower from Monday’s intraday high. For now, the trend set-up remains bullish, however, Monday’s price pattern - a bearish engulfing candle - does signal a potential short-term reversal. A continuation lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8649. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a move through 0.8769, the Jul 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.