GOLD TECHS: Support Holds For Now
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3
- PRICE: $3327.6 @ 07:21 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.
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BUNDS: The 10yr 2.60% Yield holds for now, Supply in Focus Today
- There's very little change for Bund versus Yesterday's session, given a few ticks either way, the contract is closer to Yesterday's mid range.
- The pre Cash Open bid in EGBs was driven by that sudden fall in US and EU Equities, which looked to be more Order flow related, with some 12k sold in the Emini in a ~5 minutes window, both the Emini and VGM5 are off the lows now with small moves Overall in Risk, and no real traction in ESM5 and VGM5.
- Back to the German Bund, the 2.60% level is actually the main part regarding the levels in Futures.
- The German 10yr Yield made a 2.594% high on the 29th May, a 2.592% last Thursday, and 2.593% high Yesterday, this level equated to 130.07 Yesterday.
- Resistance are at 131.00, 131.28, 131.50.
- With UK Employment on the softer side Data out of the way, there are no Tier 1 Data left for the Session, US CPI Tomorrow is the key release for the Week.
- SUPPLY: Netherlands €2.5bn 10yr (Equates to 20.3k Bund), Germany €4bn Bobl 5yr (Equates to ~34.3k Bobl) could weigh given the lower liquidity in Futures. Focus this Week is on the US Demand, Today sees, the shorter end $58bn 3yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: ESM is expected Today, MNI expects E1-3bln, but no strong conviction on Maturity.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Holzmann, Rehn.
BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $70.08 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $67.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- PRICE: $67.27 @ 07:05 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to appreciate. The latest round of gains has resulted in a break of resistance at $65.39, the 50-day EMA. The continuation higher exposes $67.73 next, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Support to watch lies at $62.09, the May 30 low. A break would be bearish.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Northbound
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 121.37 High Jun 9
- PRICE: 120.62 @ Close Jun 9
- SUP 1: 120.14 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
A bullish condition in BTP futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.14, the 20-day EMA.
