BOE: Summary of Analyst Views
Mar-17 10:30
- Of the 22 analyst analyst previews that we have read, 19 look for a 25bp hike this week (the exception being Berenberg who expect the next hike in May).
- Out of those 19 remaining analysts, 18 specify that they expect a further hike in May (Lloyds have not explicitly laid out their view after this meeting).
- Views on the vote breakdown are more nuanced. More seem to expect either a unanimous 9-0 vote or 1-3 members still voting for a 50bp hike. However, Tenreyro voting for an on hold decision is the base case of JP Morgan and discussed by others as a risk.
- There are split views on whether the forward guidance will be tweaked: language on “modest tightening” is expected to remain but whether this will be time contingent on “coming months” has split analysts.
- As we noted earlier, there is a dislocation between economists views and market pricing. For more see here.
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EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX
Feb-15 10:16
- EUR001W -0.5780 0.0050
- EUR001M -0.5550 -0.0040
- EUR003M -0.5230 -0.0070
- EUR006M -0.4550 -0.0070
- EUR012M -0.2850 -0.0020
GERMAN DATA: German ZEW Sees Muted Feb Bounce
Feb-15 10:13
GERMANY FEB ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT 54.3: JAN 51.7
GERMANY FEB ZEW CURRENT SITUATION -8.1; JAN -10.2
- Both ZEW readings were below forecasted figures, with German economic sentiment rising 2.6 points to 54.3 in February (55.0 expected), whilst the current conditions index improved by 2.1 points to -8.1 (-6.5 expected).
- Current conditions continued to improve in February from very pessimistic readings, despite both economic and political uncertainty.
- The foreseen reduction in pandemic-related restrictions and inflation beginning to fall are the key drivers of improved optimism regarding growth outlooks.
Source: : ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung
EQUITIES: Stocks Reverse Higher On Calmer Geopolitics
Feb-15 10:05
- Asian equities closed mixed: Japan's NIKKEI closed down 214.4 pts or -0.79% at 26865.19 and the TOPIX ended 15.95 pts lower or -0.83% at 1914.7. China's SHANGHAI closed up 17.206 pts or +0.5% at 3446.088 and the HANG SENG ended 200.86 pts lower or -0.82% at 24355.71
- European equities have rebounded sharply from earlier losses, with the German Dax up 200.79 pts or +1.33% at 15325.08, FTSE 100 up 56.24 pts or +0.75% at 7590.67, CAC 40 up 84.24 pts or +1.23% at 6941 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 51.81 pts or +1.27% at 4118.17.
- U.S. futures are also gaining, led by tech, with the Dow Jones mini up 305 pts or +0.88% at 34776, S&P 500 mini up 53.75 pts or +1.22% at 4447.75, NASDAQ mini up 247 pts or +1.73% at 14500.
