LATAM: Summary – February 28
Feb-28 11:13
- In Chile, month-end activity data for January are due Friday, including retail sales, IP, copper production and the unemployment rate. Elsewhere, Colombia also publishes January unemployment figures, while BanRep holds a non-monetary policy board meeting. In Mexico, net outstanding loans and public balance figures for January are due.
- In the US, personal income/spending and PCE price indices for January cross, with the inflation gauge expected to come in broadly unchanged from December, keeping the Fed on track for two further 25bp rate cuts in 2025. The MNI Chicago PMI will be interesting, given the regional Fed activity indices this week, which are flagging heightened business uncertainty around both prices and international trade in the light of tariff threats.
- The recovery off lows for USD/JPY continues early Friday, with the pair showing above the mid-week high at Y150.30, narrowing the gap with Y150.95 resistance - the 38.2% retracement for the downleg posted off the mid-February high of Y154.80.
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Historical bullets
SONIA: Call fly seller
Jan-29 11:11
SFIM5 96.00/96.50/97.00c fly sold at 4.5 down to 4.25 in 2.5k.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan29 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jan-29 11:10
- EUR/USD: $1.0400(E918mln), $1.0420-30(E1.2bln), $1.0450(E668mln), $1.0500(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Y154.00($627mln), Y154.75($700mln), Y155.00($1.4bln), Y156.00($544mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4500($1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2800($600mln)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed
Jan-29 11:10
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-12 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-05+ @ 10:40 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bullish short-term cycle in Treasury futures highlights a corrective phase and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Attention is on 109-12, the 50-day EMA - a level tested on Monday. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
