LATAM: Summary – April 10
Apr-10 10:23
- March IPCA inflation data will be released in Brazil on Wednesday, with analysts looking for a slowdown in the headline rate to 4.01% y/y, from 4.50%. In Chile, the central bank will publish its latest economist survey, while Mexico ANTAD same-store sales and Colombia consumer confidence will also cross. In the US, CPI inflation data takes focus, with markets expecting the headline rate to edge higher to 3.4% y/y, while ex-food and energy moderates to 3.7%. The Bank of Canada rate decision also crosses, with the policy rate expected to stay at 5.00%. The speaker schedule includes Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin.
- Global News:
- US (MNI) - Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% m/m in March with some skew towards a ‘low’ 0.3 reading. Most of the usual drivers are seen exerting downward pressure, most notably used car prices. OER inflation will again be watched as methodological-related noise remains top of mind. With the central leadership of the FOMC seemingly looking through near-term "bumps", a softer-than-expected core CPI reading would likely re-centre implied 2024 cut pricing back toward the March Dot Plot's base case 75bp.
- CHINA (MNI) - Fitch's sovereign credit rating methodology fails to reflect the impact of recent fiscal policy in promoting growth and stabilising macroeconomic leverage, according to an official from the Ministry of Finance. In a media interview, the MoF representative said it was regrettable that Fitch decided to recently downgrade the outlook for China's sovereign credit rating.
- CHINA / TAIWAN - Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou in Beijing for a landmark sit-down spotlighting the Communist Party’s willingness to talk to the island’s opposition. The two men will meet Wednesday, the opposition Kuomintang that Ma once led said in a statement.
- COMMODITIES - Copper rose from its highest close since mid-2022 as industrial metals posted broad gains on gathering optimism over world demand. The macroeconomic backdrop for metals, with global manufacturing starting to improve and the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates, is pushing prices higher.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CHINA STOCKS: Property & Tech Sectors Lead Rally
Mar-11 10:20
The CSI 300 finished +1.3%, while the Hang Seng added +1.4%.
- The property sector benefitted from Hong Kong’s weekend property transaction figures and news that China Vanke had deposited cash to repay some debt obligations.
- RTRS sources had already suggested that “China has asked banks to enhance financing support for state-backed China Vanke and called on creditors to consider private debt maturity extension.”
- Solar names rallied on speculation surrounding a potential sector-specific move from policymakers.
- That allowed tech sub-indices to move higher.
- Local reports re: boosting financing to various areas of the tech sector also factored in.
- Several brokerage recommendations generated double digit gains in the related names.
- ZTE & Legend Holdings struggled on earnings matters.
- HK-China Stock Connect links generated CNY10.3bn of net inflows for the mainland.
- The weekend saw the Chair of HK’s Securities & Futures Commission call for an expansion of the Stock Connect schemes.
- Firmer than expected Chinese CPI data and a limited uptick in CGB yields had little impact on equities.
- Broader expectations look for continued policy easing in China.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday-Tuesday Data Calendar: CPI, Tsy Coupon Auctions
Mar-11 10:15
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Mar-11 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.0%, --)
- Mar-11 1130 US Tsy $79B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions
- Mar-11 1300 US Tsy $56B 3Y Note auction (91282CKE0)
- Tuesday's schedule:
- Mar-12 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (89.9, 90.2)
- Mar-12 0830 CPI MoM (0.3%, 0.4%), YoY (3.1%, 3.1%)
- Mar-12 0830 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) YoY (3.9%, 3.7%)
- Mar-12 0830 CPI Index NSA (308.417, 310.304)
- Mar-12 0830 CPI Core Index SA (314.438, 315.453)
- Mar-12 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (1.3% rev, --)
- Mar-12 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.1% rev, --)
- Mar-12 1130 US Tsy $80B 42D CMB
- Mar-12 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open auction (91282CJZ5)
- Mar-12 1400 Monthly Budget Statement (-$21.9B, -$298.0B)
CANADA: Politics Week: March Break And April 16 Budget
Mar-11 10:11
- FM Freeland sets budget for April 16 and has said it will focus on housing measures and fiscal responsibility. It will also include cost of expanded public healthcare demanded from the NDP propping up the minority Liberal government.
- PM Trudeau event with Italian leader in Toronto was canceled after security concerns related to pro-Palestine protesters.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre are likely to win a majority government if an election were held now. Election is due in 2025 under a traditional four-year mandate.
- Poilievre calls BOC's QE policy a "scam." Reiterated he would reset the Bank's mandate to what he called a strict inflation targeting policy that's closer to the original regime, without elaborating.
- Parliament sits only one week this month in the week starting on the 18th.
- State funeral for former PM Mulroney set for March 23.
- Sample headline: John Ivison: Expect a finance minister in survival mode to turn on the spending taps (National Post)
