(SZUGR; Baa2 Neg/BBB Neg)
We already saw downgrade risk on FY26 guidance, outlook there we said was uncertain and dependent on where the weakness came from (it will release full results on 15th May). 32s are retail denominated and will likely need HY ratings to take a step wider - we will circle back if we see a double notch downgrade risk.
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A better 10-year Bund auction than yesterday's Schatz auction - but still relatively soft.
OI data points to net short setting across most contracts on Tuesday, with FV futures once again seeing the largest positioning swing.
| 11-Mar-25 | 10-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,915,055 | 3,883,551 | +31,504 | +1,243,953 |
FV | 6,245,246 | 6,173,325 | +71,921 | +3,159,198 |
TY | 4,700,117 | 4,698,104 | +2,013 | +130,039 |
UXY | 2,216,680 | 2,227,328 | -10,648 | -952,498 |
US | 1,770,567 | 1,766,363 | +4,204 | +550,412 |
WN | 1,760,309 | 1,759,527 | +782 | +153,333 |
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| Total | +99,776 | +4,284,439 |