AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session With Local Calendar Light & Cash US Tsys Out
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) are slightly weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s session.
- With the local calendar empty and cash US tsys out for Martin L. King Day, the local market has lacked direction.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper.
- Today's sale of the A$300mn of the 4.25% 21 June 2034 green bond drew a cover ratio of 5.18x.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- The bills strip is -1 to -2 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (102%), with the probability of a February cut at 67% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- “Yarra Capital Management’s Tim Toohey is tipping three rate cuts this year and a final one in 2026, taking the cash rate to 3.35 per cent. His rationale is that it takes about three reductions to get financial conditions just below the neutral setting – the level at which the cash rate is neither overly stimulating the economy nor suppressing growth.” (per AFR)
- The local calendar is light this week, with the highlights being the Westpac Leading Index on Wednesday and S&P Global PMIs (P) on Friday.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
