US STOCKS: Struggle To Hold Gains Above 5700
The ESM5 had an overnight range of 5653 - 5741, Asia is currently trading around 5675. US Stocks held onto some of their gains overnight but did close quite poorly.
- “US President Donald Trump said he believed trade negotiations launching this weekend with China would result in tangible progress, predicting Beijing would be willing to make concessions and saying he would consider cutting punishing tariffs against the country if there was significant momentum.”(BBG)
- The market will be laser focused on the outcome of the meeting this weekend between China and the US. Bessent described it as a step to "de-escalation” the market should not be expecting anything meaningful, but will be hopeful of some positive rhetoric to build on.
- The Stock market has seemed to price in a lot of the recent positive sentiment. Is the US-UK announcement enough to satiate investors ? One would think we need something more to get another leg higher in stocks.
- Momentum Funds triggers are likely not too far away and they are reported to be quite underweight, it may be we would need a move back above 5800 for them to get truly back involved.
The SPX has had a big bounce from its lows on 4800 handle, but we are approaching some key resistance between 5600-5800, the longer-term sellers should be active around here. Short-term the move higher seems to have stalled and has the potential of some sort of a retracement, support seen back towards 5400/5500
Fig 1: SPX Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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AUSSIE BONDS: Twist-Steepener With US Tsys, Nov-28 Supply Due
ACGBs (YM +8.0 & XM -8.0) have twist-steepened in line with developments abroad.
- Overnight, US tsys finished mostly weaker as tariff headlines continued to rattle markets, with curves twisting to the steepest levels in over three years.
- The US long end was hit hard with the 30-year cheapening by 15bps. The 10-year was 11bps higher at 4.29%, while the 2-year yield richened 4bps to 3.73% on haven demand and rate cut bets.
- Trump officials confirmed 104% added tariff on China went into effect at noon, with WH press sec Leavitt adding that additional tariffs are to be collected starting tomorrow.
- Cash ACGBs are 8bps lower to 8bps higher with the 3/10 curve steeper and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -3bps.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +7 to +14.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-14bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in May is given a 70% probability, with a cumulative 128 bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
- Today, the local calendar will see Consumer Inflation Expectation data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond tomorrow.
AUD: AUD Crosses - AUD Heavy Across The Board
Stocks closed very poorly overnight putting risk under pressure once more into the Asian open. The break higher in USD/CNH has profound implications for the AUD and if the markets view that the PBOC is to let the CNH move higher proves to be correct, expect the AUD to come under more pressure.
- EUR/AUD - Overnight range 1.7960 - 1.8422, Asia opens with the AUD under pressure and EUR/AUD making new highs around 1.8482. This move looks set to continue.
- GBP/AUD - Overnight range 2.1009 - 2.1479, Asia continues to push this cross higher testing 2.1515 at the time writing. This move looks to be building up momentum and has potential to start accelerating, above 2.20/25 it could get messy.
- AUD/JPY - Overnight range 86.88 - 89.69, everyone's favourite way to express risk aversion in FX. The poor close therefore sees Asia continue the theme and make new lows, the first target looks to be the 78.00/80.00 area.
- AUD/NZD - Overnight range 1.0741 - 1.0830, some consolidation in the cross as both AUD and NZD are impacted by moves in risk and the USD/CNH. Expect supply on any move back towards 1.0850/1.0900.
GBPAUD
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JGBS: Futures Little Changed Overnight, US Tsys Bear-Steepen
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed little changed, +2 compared to settlement levels.
- Volatility remained high overnight as tariff uncertainties continued to roil the markets as the reciprocal levies went into effect at midnight.
- Trump officials confirmed 104% added tariff on China went into effect at noon, with WH press sec Leavitt adding that additional tariffs are to be collected starting today.
- Concurrently, China vowed to "fight to the end". Notably, the PBoC yesterday allowed the offshore yuan to fall to a record low, testing 7.4153 versus the dollar.
- Wall Street finished with steep losses but edged off their lows into the close.
- US tsys finished mostly weaker, with curves twisting to the steepest levels in over three years (2s10s tap 55.157 high). The US long end was hit hard with the 30-year cheapening by 15bps. The 10-year was 11bps higher at 4.29%, while the 2-year yield richened 4bps to 3.73% on haven demand and rate cut bets.
- Today, the local calendar will see Consumer Confidence and Machine Tool Orders data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-3-year and 5-25-year JGBs.
- BoJ Governor Ueda will also give a speech at the Trust Companies Conference (15:15 JT).
