SILVER TECHS: Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.570 @ 08:58 BST May 2
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 2
- SUP 2: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforces the current bullish theme and the metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has cleared $33.117, 76.4% of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards $34.590, the Mar 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support at $32.087, the Apr 17 low, is being tested. A material break of this level would undermine the bull cycle and highlight a potential reversal.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.0800.
EURUSD 2.3bn at 1.0800 (thu).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (thu).
EURUSD 1.53bn at 1.0800 (fri).
USDCAD 1.19bn at 1.4350 (fri).
AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6300 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.43bn at 0.6350 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.0700 (1.11bn), 1.0750 (525mln), 1.0790 (362mln), 1.0800 (972mln).
- USDJPY: 149.80 (278mln), 149.95 (299mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4300 (307mln), 1.4350 (425mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5775 (427mln).
OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0790-00(E1.9bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.80-95($577mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3780($1.1bln), C$1.4400-15($924mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.3bln)
STIR: Over 60bp Of ECB Cuts Priced Through Dec Ahead Of Tariff Announcements
Tariff worry ahead of the impending “Liberation Day” announcements from the White House limit any hawkish pullbacks in EUR STIRs and EGBs.
- Euribor futures flat to +2.0 as a result.
- ’25 ECB meeting-dated OIS little changed to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~19.5bp of cuts for this month, 36.5bp through June and 62.5bp through year-end.
- A reminder that the market expects the ECB to be more reactive to any downside growth shocks emanating from U.S. tariffs than upside inflation outcomes. Recent ECB communique has done little to push back against that assumption.
- Appearances from ECB’s Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva are scheduled today. Note that Lane will moderate a panel the Bank’s AI conference, so don’t expect too much in the way of direct monetary policy comments from him.
- Little of note on the Eurozone data calendar, which will leave focus on U.S. tariff decisions and data for much of the session.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Apr-25 | 2.226 | -19.4 |
Jun-25 | 2.056 | -36.4 |
Jul-25 | 1.982 | -43.8 |
Sep-25 | 1.875 | -54.5 |
Oct-25 | 1.840 | -58.0 |
Dec-25 | 1.794 | -62.6 |
