NORWAY: Stronger NOK and Q1 Asset Price Weakness Pulls Down Net IIP In Q1
Jun-04 07:43
The Norwegian current account surplus rose to NOK286.5bln in Q1, up from NOK203.7bln in Q4 and NOK241.8bln in Q1 2024.
- The goods surplus widened to NOK245.6bln from NOK209.2bln in Q4. High Q1 gas prices were key here. On a 4Q rolling sum to GDP, the goods surplus ticked up to 15% (vs 14% in Q4). Excluding oil and gas exports, the goods trade deficit was NOK88.1bln from NOK109.5bln in Q4 (and NOK81.6bln in Q1 2024).
- The services deficit narrowed to NOK5.4bln (vs 10.6bln in Q4 and NOK9.6bln in Q1 2024). Stats Norway notes contributions from financial services and tourism. On a 4Q rolling sum to GDP basis, the services deficit is still only 1%.
- The surplus on current income and transfers rose to NOK46.3bln from NOK5.1bln in Q4. However, this was down from NOK58.1bln in Q1 2024. Stats Norway points to decline in share dividends from abroad contributed in particular to a lower surplus on the interest and benefits balance.
- Financial account flows were as usual dominated by portfolio investment (related to the Government pension fund). The net portfolio investment outflow fell to NOK214.5bln (vs NOK273.6bln in Q4). The strengthening NOK and Q1 price falls in global markets (especially US equities) drove this decline.
- On a 4Q rolling basis as a % nominal GDP, the portfolio investment outflow still rose to 19% (vs 18% prior).
- There was a net direct investment outflow in Q1 (NOK66bln), but still a small inflow on a 4Q basis to GDP of 1% (vs 2% prior).
- The net international investment position fell to 346% of nominal GDP (vs 377% in Q4). Over the medium-term, net IIP loosely correlates with changes in the I-44 effective exchange rate index. A lower reading in I-44 indicates a stronger NOK.
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AUD: Best performer within G10s
May-05 07:14
- While just off its best level, the AUD is still the best performer against the Dollar within G10 Currencies, the Aussie has extended through the 2025 high on Friday and has found a boost following Albanese's win over the Weekend.
- Tariffs risks are still the major concern, but some of the continuity in Policy could be seen as supportive at least short Term.
- Next resistance in AUDUSD comes at 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24, and upside traction could be on the card, although Trade risks are at the forefront.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
May-05 07:08
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.385 @ 08:07 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 2
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforced the current bullish theme. This suggests the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Price has traded below support at $322.443, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the latest uptrend.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor
May-05 07:03
ERU5 98.50/98.37/98.25/98.00p condor, bought for flat in 6.2k.
