ASIA STOCKS: Strong Regional Outflows to end the Week
Jul-07 02:35
Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Period as the tariff deadline approaches, outflows were strong across major bourses.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$117m Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$336m. 2025 to date flows are -$9,212. The 5-day average is -$67m, the 20-day average is +$18m and the 100-day average of -$82m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$50m Friday, with total inflows of +$2,760 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,015. The 5-day average is +$552m, the 20-day average of +$480m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
- India: Had outflows of -$305m as of the 3rd, with total inflows of +$497m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$8,418m. The 5-day average is +$99m, the 20-day average of +$127m and the 100-day average of $0m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$29 on Friday, with total outflows of -$172m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,387m. The 5-day average is -$34m, the 20-day average -$22m and the 100-day average -$32m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$72m as of Friday, with outflows totaling -$116m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,456m. The 5-day average is -$23m, the 20-day average of -$15m and the 100-day average of -$21m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows as of -$1m on Friday, totaling +$72m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,671m. The 5-day average is +$14m, the 20-day average of -$9m and the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Philippines: Recorded inflows of +$5m on Friday, with net inflows of +$49m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$548m. The 5-day average is +$10m, the 20-day average of -$2m the 100-day average of -$4m.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows
Jun-06 22:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.19 @ 15:53 GMT Jun 06
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2025
Jun-06 21:24
We've just published our UST Issuance Deep Dive - Download Full Report Here
- May’s refunding round saw guidance as well as coupon sizes for the current quarter unchanged.
- The August round (Jul 28-30) could prove more compelling, reflecting both pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve as well as a shifting fiscal outlook amid tariff revenues contrasted with impending tax cuts (not to mention the likelihood of approaching the debt limit at around that time if it’s not lifted).
- Future Coupon Upsizing: We’ve seen some expectations that Treasury could lean against some of those trends in the August refunding, with potential signals if not immediate action on adjusting buybacks or even reducing issuance duration in order to reduce pressure on the long end. MNI’s current expectation is that coupon sizes will only be increased in early 2026. We will update in our next Deep Dive at end-June, with our full refunding preview coming in late July.
- Upcoming issuance: June is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $23B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $366B. Sales for the month start in the coming week, on Tuesday June 10 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday June 11 with $39B of 10Y Note, and Thursday June 12 with $22B of 30Y Bond.
- May Auction Results: Against a backdrop of continued steepening pressure for global sovereign curves, May’s coupon auctions saw strong sales at the short-end/belly contrasted with tails at the long-end.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Treasury Measures Tick Up As Cash Depletes
Jun-06 20:20
Treasury had $84B in "extraordinary measures" available to keep the government financed as of June 4 per a release Friday. That is up from $68B a week earlier though Treasury has exhausted three-quarters of the total initially available ($362B) when the debt limit impasse began in January.
- Combined with a pullback in Treasury cash ($376B), the total resources available to avert an "x-date" in the summer are down to a total $460B, the lowest since April 10 before the annual tax take accelerated.
- There will be another uptick in Treasury cash late next week/early the following week around the mid-June tax date, but this is likely to be the last major uplift before the summer at which point x-date speculation will pick up if Congress hasn't passed a debt limit increase by then.
