ASIA STOCKS: Strong Inflows for KOREA and INDIA
A subdued end to the week with an overall outflow from major markets
- South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$447m on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to +$256m. 2025 to date flows are -$7,521. The 5-day average is +$51m, the 20-day average is +$191m and the 100-day average of -$78m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$164m as of Friday, with total outflows of -$237 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10,661. The 5-day average is -$47m, the 20-day average of -$13m and the 100-day average of -$71m.
- India: Had inflows of +$235m as of the 19th, with total inflows of +$139m over the prior 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$10,438m. The 5-day average is +$28m, the 20-day average of +$10m and the 100-day average of -$59m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$167m on Friday, with total outflows of -$275m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,209m. The 5-day average is -$55m, the 20-day average -$14m and the 100-day average -$31m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$115m as of Friday, with outflows totaling -$298m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,446m. The 5-day average is -$60m, the 20-day average of -$37m and the 100-day average of -$22m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$48m as of Friday, totaling -$133m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,753m. The 5-day average is -$26m, the 20-day average of -$30m and the 100-day average of -$23m.
- Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$15m yesterday, with net outflows of -$62m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$577m. The 5-day average is -$12m, the 20-day average of -$16m the 100-day average of -$5m.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
