ASIA STOCKS: Strong Inflows Across Major Markets 

May-08 01:03

As the steam comes out of the USD and trade war risks abate for now, major markets in Asia have experienced over US$5bn of inflows over the last five trading days with Taiwan gaining the most, followed by India and South Korea. 

  • South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$270m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$512m. 2025 to date flows are -$12,059m. The 5-day average is +$102m, the 20-day average is -$176m and the 100-day average of -$138m.
  • Taiwan: Had inflows of +$490m as of yesterday, with total inflows of +$2,962m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$15,350. The 5-day average is +$592m, the 20-day average of +$125m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
  • India: Had inflows of +$474m as of the 6th, with total inflows of +$1,319m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$11,244m.  The 5-day average is +$264m, the 20-day average of +$121m and the 100-day average of -$115m.
  • Indonesia: Had outflows of -$106m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$96m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$3,167m.  The 5-day average is -$19m, the 20-day average -$67m and the 100-day average -$37m
  • Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$138m as of yesterday, inflows totaling +$241m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,481m. The 5-day average is +$48m, the 20-day average of -$20m the 100-day average of -$18m.
  • Malaysia: Recorded inflows of +$86m as of yesterday, totaling +$233m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,501m. The 5-day average is +$47m, the 20-day average of +$8m and the 100-day average of -$30m.
  • Philippines: Saw inflows of +$12m as of yesterday, with net inflows of +$53m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$228m. The 5-day average is +$11m, the 20-day average of -$1m the 100-day average of -$3m.
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Historical bullets

AUD: AUD Crosses - AUD Leads FX Lower

Apr-08 00:59

AUD has historically been used as a risk-off proxy so it makes sense to see the AUD struggle against its crosses right across the board. Yesterday we saw the AUD take a breath for the first time in the crosses as the market saw currencies that seemed immune to the moves also start to react as the demand for USD’s began to broaden.

  • EUR/AUD - Had a very wide range of 1.7883 - 1.8423, finally some consolidation after ripping higher from 1.72 to touch 1.84 in just 3 days. Look for dips back towards 1.75/78 to be supported as the AUD leads  the risk off move lower.
  • GBP/AUD - yesterday's range was 2.0945 - 2.1645, eventually a pause after looking to go parabolic. GBP has begun to react to the global distress and this looks to potentially be putting a short term top in place. Dips though back to 2.03/06 should find buyers once more.
  • AUD/JPY is everyone's favourite way to express risk aversion in FX, so it's not surprising to see it bounce as buyers finally emerge to put a low in US stocks in place for now. Price is challenging the pivotal 88.00/90.00 area and while risk remains under pressure expect bounces to be met with supply back towards 92.00/94.00. A sustained close sub 88.00 opens up a potential acceleration lower with 78/80 the first target.
  • AUD/NZD -  finally found some buyers after a relentless washout of longs to almost touch 1.0700. After that capitulation expect sellers to reemerge between 1.0900/1.1000.

AUDJPY

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

GOLD:  Overnight Falls in Gold 

Apr-08 00:52
  • In US trading overnight, gold fell for the third day straight.
  • As markets remain uncertain, even gold’s safe haven bid has been challenged with bullion down -1.8% overnight to US$2,983.28.
  • Despite reassurances from Trump officials to investors that the tariff plan won’t derail the economy, there remains little appetite for risk in most asset classes.
  • Despite the reassurances, Trump then threated with upping the tariffs on China.
  • With the arbitrage in pricing between the US and UK over, the flow of physical gold into London resumed in March with an increase for the first time in five months.
  • Yesterday, in China’s FX Reserves release, the Central Bank provided details on the growth of gold held by the PBOC, as it rose for a fifth consecutive month. 

US TSYS: Cash Bonds Little Changed After Yesterday’s Heavy Close

Apr-08 00:47

TYM5 is 111-27+, -0-06+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

  • Cash US tsys are dealing slightly mixed, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Markets experienced significant turbulence yesterday, with extreme volatility driven by poor liquidity conditions. The situation was further exacerbated by a flurry of social media activity from President Trump, who threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports.
  • The US 10-year yield, which ranged between 3.85% and 3.95% during yesterday’s Asia-Pac session, moved sharply higher as European markets opened. It reached an intraday high of 4.21% before finishing at 4.18%, +19bps. It is currently trading at 4.1740%, 0.95bp lower.
  • Economic data remains light ahead of key releases later this week. Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC minutes, followed by CPI data on Thursday and PPI on Friday.