EQUITIES: Stocks Fall On Nvidia Earnings

• Treasuries are holding modestly weaker levels/narrow ranges since midmorning, curves bear steepening (2s10s +2.376 at 48.412) ahead of Wednesday's widely expected steady FOMC rate announcement.
• It’s virtually unanimous that there will be two dissents in favor of a cut at this meeting, with Gov Waller widely expected to do so and Gov Bowman also likely (among analysts who expressed an opinion on this).
• Projected rate cut pricing gained slightly vs. early morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -0.8bp (-0.05bp), Sep'25 at -17.4bp (-16.7bp), Oct'25 at -28.2bp (-27.6bp), Dec'25 at -44.5bp (-43.6bp). Year end projection well off early July level of appr -65.0bp.
• Currently, the Sep'25 10Y contract trades -5 at 110-26.5 (110-24.5 low). Key support to watch is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this support would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
• EUR sank sharply against all others in G10 Monday, swiftly reversing the opening bid on the back of the EU-US trade deal headlines. Bbg's US$ index looks to finish near late session highs: BBDXY +9.42 at 1209.99.
• Stock earnings resume after the close with the following reporting: Woodward Inc, Whirlpool Corp, Waste Management, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design Systems, Beyond Inc, Universal Health Services, Nucor Corp, Welltower Inc and The Western Union Co.

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3729/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3730 @ 19:47 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Despite a recovery from last week’s lows and a further phase of strength Monday, the trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains appear corrective. Markets have traded either side of resistance at 1.3728, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.  

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6625 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 0.6517 @ 19:45 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.6505/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17  
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

Last week’s fresh trend highs in AUDUSD reinforce bullish conditions and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Gains have resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This marks a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6505. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.