FED: STIR: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage bounces to $177.871B from Tuesday's $143.243B -- the lowest since May 6, 2021. The number of counterparties rise to 57 from 50 prior.
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EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8444 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8388 @ 16:26 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 0.8311 Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish, however, last Thursday’s strong rally highlights possible reversal. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend - for now. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high. First resistance is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
PIPELINE: LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, Trade Balance, Tsy 3Y Note Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Oct-8 0300 Fed Gov Kugler at ECB event (Schnabel Chairs Session)
- Oct-8 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (91.2, 92.0)
- Oct-8 0830 Trade Balance (-$78.8B, -$70.5B)
- Oct-8 1130 US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction
- Oct-8 1245 Atl Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- Oct-8 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CLQ2)
- Oct-8 1600 Boston Fed Collins comm banking conf (text, Q&A)
- Oct-8 1930 Fed VC Jefferson on discount window (test, Q&A)
US: Key Indicators Have Shifted Towards Harris Since Assuming Dem Nomination
Ipsos has published analysis showing that numerous key indicators, including polling averages, confidence on handling the economy, and favourability have all shifted in favour of Harris since she assumed the Democratic Party presidential nomination.
- Ipsos: “No indicators swing towards Trump. Even if some indicators don’t favor Harris, importantly, none have swung towards Trump since Harris took over. On the other hand, indicators like mentions and betting odds have swung towards Harris as she makes some inroads on the economy.”
- Ipsos concludes: “Even so, the race seems to be settling in and it is incredibly close. The national polls and the swing state polls have remained stable. Harris seemingly has an advantage in the popular vote, but with the swing states having razor-thin margins, the Electoral College is seeming more like a toss-up.”
Figure 1: Change in Key Indicators Since Harris Assumed Nomination
Source: Ipsos
