STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate

Far OTM longer dated Single Bank Option, Commerzbank:

• CBK (18/06/27) 8p, bought for 0.92 in 4k.

Goolsbee (’25 voter) spoke on CNBC, broadly in keeping with weekend comments. He continues to warn Friday’s soft payrolls report was just one print but maintains his position as one of the more dovish FOMC members .

• “If we are not overheating, we should not be tightening our restrictiveness in real terms. If inflation is falling, us staying at the same rate is tightening. The real funds rate is as high as it’s been in a long time."
• "As you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession you want to be forward looking for where the economy is headed for making decisions. It’s the market’s job to react and it’s the Fed’s job to act. One of those moves with a lot more volatility than the other."

The below are from Reuters headlines:

• “JOBS NUMBER WERE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED BUT NOT LOOKING YET LIKE RECESSION
• MUST BE A LITTLE CAREFUL OVERCONCLUDING ABOUT JOBS REPORT
• ON OTHER SIDE, GDP NUMBER WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
• THAT SAID, THERE ARE CAUTIONARY INDICATORS IN OTHER DATA SUCH AS BUSINESS DEFAULTS”