ECB: Still Between Baseline and Adverse Scenarios, Moving Away From Baseline

Retail sales rose 6.9% Y/Y in the week ending March 28, per the Johnson Redbook Index, accelerating from the 6.7% posted the prior week. That brings month-to-date gains to 6.6% Y/Y, up a little from the 6.5% in the prior week, albeit slightly below the very strong 6.8% in February and retailers' targeted 7.4% rise.

• Once again, along with a strong Y/Y figure there was no mention in the anecdotals of weaker sentiment or changed consumer behavior against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East and the resultant energy price shock.
• "Amazon kicked off its 2026 Big Spring Sale from March 25 to March 31, offering deals on seasonal items, spring clothing, electronics, cleaning, and gardening products. Other retailers followed suit with promotions across all categories to attract shoppers and clear out inventories."
• Wednesday brings February's advance Census Bureau retail sales report, which is seen posting steady Y/Y Control Group gains vs January (0.3% M/M); that would bring Y/Y Control Group sales to roughly 4.0%, down from 4.9% in January, once again marking a (negative) gap with the Redbook series though that's nothing new.

• MNI:US JAN FHFA HPI SA +0.1% V +0.3% DEC; +1.6% Y/Y

• MNI: US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +6.9% WK ENDED MAR 28 VS YR AGO WK
• US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +6.6% VS YR AGO MO