EU AUTOMOTIVE: Stellantis: S&P to neg.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow latest estimate for Q2 GDP is 2.58% Q/Q SAAR (-0.5% in Q1), basically steady vs 2.61% in the last full update on Jul 3.

• The latest update incorporates today's wholesale trade data, which had only a negligible negative impact on the forecasts (0.02pp bigger drag on growth from inventories).
• The high estimate for the quarter was 3.8% in early June, with 2.4% in early July marking the low). Analyst consensus is for 2.1%.
• The next update isn't until July 17, after retail sales + inventories, import and export price data.

The bid in U.S. Tsys, weakness in crude and move away from highs in e-minis have provided support for gilts, with futures trading to fresh session highs of 91.92, but ultimately remaining within the confines of yesterday’s range.

• Bulls will want to break yesterday’s high (91.98) before attempting to close yesterday’s opening gap lower.
• Yields 0.5-4bp lower, curve flatter.
• BoE Governor Bailey’s reiteration re: recent curve steepening factoring into the Bank’s QT adjustment decision in September underpinned an early flattening curve bias, with major spreads paring most of yesterday’s bear steepening.
• Still, a lack of fiscal headroom, coupled with tepid economic growth and downside risks to productivity continue to promote heighted odds of tax increases as soon as the Autumn, while underscoring the fiscal fragility narrative.
• GBP STIR pricing slightly more dovish on the day given action further out the curve.
• SONIA futures 0.5-2.0 firmer.
• BoE-dated OIS showing ~52.5bp of cuts through year-end, ~1bp more dovish on the day.

• EUR/USD: $1.1650(E2.5bln), $1.1685-00(E1.5bln), $1.1710-20(E616mln), $1.1735-50(E1.5bln), $1.1800(E1.3bln)
• USD/JPY: Y143.95-15($1.0bln), Y144.70-90($1.3bln), Y146.50-55($681mln), Y147.00($832mln)
• GBP/USD: $1.3490-10(Gbp529mln), $1.3570(Gbp540mln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8595-00(E815mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6440-55(A$954mln), $0.6500(A$599mln), $0.6415-25(A$589mln), $0.6600(A$634mln)
• NZD/USD: $0.6000(N$517mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3625-35($1.0bln)