US DATA: Steady Manheim Prices In Dec, Prior Moves Suggest CPI Used Car Downside
Dec-17 15:08
- Manheim used vehicle values increased 0.3% M/M on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis in the first 15 days of December compared to November.
- It leaves them tracking largely sideways over the past year, just 0.6% higher than in Dec 2024.
- The small increase follows 1.2% M/M in Nov, -2.0% in Oct, -0.2% in Sep and 0.0% in Aug.
- These wholesale prices tend to feed through to CPI used vehicle prices with a lag and crudely suggest downside risk for tomorrow’s release, although the fit isn’t great month-to-month – see charts.
- Of the six analysts we have seen CPI used vehicle estimates for, the average looks for a 0.4% M/M increase on average across October and November (i.e. crudely a 0.8% cumulative increase compared to September).
- These are expressed over a two-month basis owing to there not being a full October release but used cars might be one of the few series that does see October values.
- If 0.4% M/M increases are accurate, it would mark a sizeable upswing from the surprisingly soft -0.4% M/M back in September.
- Looking further ahead, recent Manheim values crudely suggest stabilization in CPI used car prices into early 2026.
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