US: State Department Press Conference Underway Shortly
State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel is shortly due to deliver a press conference from the State Department.
- Livestream: https://www.state.gov/todays-briefing-schedule/
- Vedant will be joined by Ambassador at Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick.
- Fick was confirmed to head the new department by the Senate in August and will lead a drive to improve US resilience against malign cyber threats from state and non-state actors.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended the Organization of American States in Peru today where he pledged USD$240m in funds to address needs of migrants in the Western Hemisphere.
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EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 2
- RES 3: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8679 High Jul 1
- PRICE: 0.8594 @ 16:21 BST Sep 6
- SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Aug 31
- SUP 2: 0.8524 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8496 50-day EMA
- SUP 4:0.8408 Low Aug 23
EURGBP remains in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The cross has recently cleared a number of short-term resistance points and attention is on 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8572, the Aug 31 low.
CANADA: Reluctance To Price In Much Higher Rates Ahead Of BoC
- BAX futures have reversed the earlier move lower to leave them little changed from Friday’s close, with yields up 1-2bps through to end-2023, in stark contrast to Eurodollars yields cranking higher (EDZ2 +11.5bps, EDZ3 +13.5bps).
- After an already sizeable re-pricing of higher rates through 2023, there is a reluctance to increase much further ahead of tomorrow’s BoC decision with question marks over potential rate guidance ahead once it will presumably be in restrictive territory.
- As it is, BAX yields sit at a level crudely consistent with a terminal policy rate of circa 3.75% in the Dec’22, seen largely holding there through 1H23 with the first full 25bp cut not until closer to mid-2024.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence
- RES 4: 1.1981 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.1901 High Aug 26 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1788 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.1624/1760 High Sep 1 / Low Jul 14 and recent breakout lvl
- PRICE: 1.1536 @ 16:16 BST Sep 6
- SUP 1: 1.1444/1412 Low Sep 5 / Low Mar 20 2020 and major support
- SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
The current downtrend in GBPUSD remains intact and Monday’s initial weakness reinforces current conditions. The pair has recovered however short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Note that trend is oversold however this does not appear to be a concern for bears. The focus is on 1.1412 next, Mar 20 2020 low and a major support. Firm resistance is at 1.1788, the 20-day EMA.
