TURKEY: Stance on Real TRY Appreciation Said to Be Unchanged, Bloomberg Report
Sep-11 12:55
Bloomberg report, citing people with direct knowledge of the matter, that real lira appreciation remains an expected policy outcome for Turkey’s central bank despite the monetary authority dropping an explicit reference to it in the statement accompanying today's interest-rate decision.
- Bloomberg say "The Turkish central bank will maintain a tight monetary framework, a stance that policymakers believe will continue to support the currency" and "The change in the rate statement was a matter of simplifying language".
- As a reminder, the policy statement removed reference to “real appreciation in Turkish lira” when referring to the channels through which tight monetary policy will support disinflation. While this afternoon's 250bp repo rate cut was slightly larger than the 200bps expected, BloombergHT’s median forecast of surveyed institutions had predicted a 250bp cut after some dovish comments by Governor Karahan.
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MNI: US REDBOOK: AUG STORE SALES +5.7% V YR AGO MO
Aug-12 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: AUG STORE SALES +5.7% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.7% WK ENDED AUG 09 V YR AGO WK
US DATA: Core Goods Median M/M Moderates In July After Strong June
Aug-12 12:52
- Core goods inflation was surprisingly soft in July at 0.21% M/M vs analyst average estimates closer to 0.4%, i.e. a very similar pace to the 0.20% M/M in June rather than a firm acceleration.
- We went into some of the main drivers for this surprise in an earlier bullet but for now, our calculation of median moderated to 0.28% M/M after a particularly strong 0.44% M/M in June. It's back at a pace similar to the 0.29% M/M in May.
- This is still a robust pace – it averaged 0.0% M/M in 2024 and 0.06% M/M in Q1 – but clearly doesn’t show any further acceleration in what would have been a sign of accelerated tariff passthrough.
- As we always caution though, see the below charts for the extent to which these individual series aren't seasonally adjusted.
US DATA: Headline CPI Below-Expected On Both Food And Energy
Aug-12 12:50
July's core % M/M CPI reading of 0.322% was in line with expectations (MNI unrounded median 0.32%), with the 0.197% M/M headline a "miss" vs 0.24% MNI unrounded median.
- Starting with headline, both food and energy prices came in below expected (0.05% vs 0.27% exp for food; -1.07% vs -0.65% exp for energy).
- Food at home fell 0.1% (after two months of +0.3%) but food away from home remained stubbornly high at 0.3% (after 0.3-0.4% the prior 2 months).
- Motor fuel prices fell 2.0%, in line with expectations - energy services fell 0.3% after +0.9%, led by a pullback in electricity prices (-0.1% after +1.0%).
