ASIA STOCKS: Stage Set For SK/Taiwan Outflows To Stabilize? Firm Phils Inflows
Tech related outflows dominated at the end of last week, with last week seeing over $5bn in net outflows from South Korea. This was the most since 2021. Taiwan's $1.2bn in net outflows on Friday, bringing outflows to over $3.5bn for last week. The early focus this week is on a possible end to the US government shutdown, which is boosting US equity futures and having a positive spill over to the Asia Pac region. The Kospi is up over 2%, with additional support coming from reports that the National Pension Service may increase its allocation to domestic stocks, while onshore media also reported from the weekend that the top tax rate on dividend income will be cut to 25% from 35%. If broader risk sentiment stabilizes there is scope for reduced outflow pressures from South Korea. So far today, there has been modest net inflows form offshore investors.
- For Taiwan, Friday's export data, at nearly +50% y/y for Oct, shows underlying strength in the economy, led by the tech export side. This should keep local equity sentiment still supported on dips and by extension inflows. Taiwan, in the past trading month, has seen over $8.5bn in net outflows, which is getting closer to previous trough points.
- Indian outflow momentum continued up to last Thursday, pushing 2025 YTD outflows back close to recent wides.
- In South East Asia trends remained mixed, with Indonesia positive, while Thailand was negative,
- The standout on Friday was the $84mn net inflows into Philippine stocks, the best daily inflow since Sep 23. Friday saw sharp losses for Philippines stocks amidst the GDP miss, with PCOMP closing at multi year lows. Offshore investors potential see value in this dip though.
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -272 | -5049 | -1648 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -1215 | -3559 | 1287 |
| India (USDmn)* | -307 | -1454 | -16761 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | 55 | 207 | -2318 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -84 | -39 | -3056 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -11 | -20 | -4179 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | 84 | 77 | -675 |
| Total (USDmn) | -1750 | -9837 | -27348 |
| * Data Up To Nov 6 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
