SECURITY: Speculation Increases Of Iranian Strike On US Base In Qatar
Following an earlier report from Amwaj Media, there is increasing speculation from analysts and journalists that an Iranian strike could target US military assets in Qatar. SEE: SECURITY: Iranian Retaliation 'Most Probably' Take Place In Coming Hours - Amwaj
- Reuters notes: “Qatar said it has shut down airspace temporarily as part of measures taken amid developments in the region, a statement by the Qatari foreign ministry said on X... The shutdown of Qatari airspace comes as Iran repeated earlier threats to retaliate against the United States after strikes on its nuclear sites.”
- The BBC noted earlier: "The US embassy in Qatar suggested in a notice online that Americans do so "out of an abundance of caution". The UK government said it was issuing its warning, external in response to the US alert."
- Ian Bremmer at Eurasia Group noted on X that the US base in Qatar "makes sense" as a target for Iranian strikes, "especially if they’re giving the Americans advance warning... " Providing a “spectacular” response with "less risk of further escalation".
- Iran's calculus is likely that a symbolic strike against a largely depopulated US military installation could satisfy domestic calls for retaliation without risking deeper US involvement.
- As Amwaj noted: “Following the US attack on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, top Iranian officials indicated that the door to diplomacy had been shut altogether. However, that may change if Iran is allowed to save face through an attack on largely evacuated US military installations.”
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
