US: Speaker Johnson Won't Bring House Back To Pass New CR As Shutdown Continues
Oct-29 15:48
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has ruled out bringing the House of Representatives, which has been recessed for 40 days, back into session to pass a new funding bill.
- Johnson told reporters, "Wouldn't that be a futile exercise when we have a CR that's been sitting over there since Sept. 19? If I brought the House back and we passed another CR, it would meet the exact same fate from [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer [D-NY]. He would mock it, they would spike it, and they would try to blame it on us. So, what would be the point of that?"
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) indicated to reporters yesterday that bipartisan talks have “picked up”, but there doesn’t appear to be an immediate offramp out of the shutdown as the two sides remain dug in on healthcare.
- Thune is likely to recess the Senate after a 14th vote on the House-passed CR on Thursday. The shutdown will enter its 35th day on Tuesday, November 4, equalling the record for the longest ever US government shutdown.
- According to Polymarket, the most likely shutdown end date is November 23. That is beyond the timeframe for the Continuing Resolution passed by the House in late September, which extends funding until November 21.
Figure 1: When will the Government Shutdown End?
- Source: Polymarket
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US DATA: BLS's Shutdown Plan Confirms Key Data Wouldn't Be Published
Sep-29 15:37
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' key economic releases would be postponed in the event of a government shutdown, per the Department of Labor's plan for such an event - PDF link.
- "BLS will suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease. The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse."
- Furthermore: "The releases of economic data will likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged....A reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced."
- This was largely expected - at least for the key BLS data points in the next couple of weeks, namely the September employment report (due out this Friday Oct 3) and the September CPI report (due out Weds Oct 15)), as well as PPI (Oct 16). The shutdown would begin at midnight on Wednesday October 1 unless agreement is reached on government funding.
- It was unclear whether the weekly jobless claims reports would still be published, however, since while they are compiled and released by the BLS, they use state-by-state data and were published in 2013 during the last full federal government shutdown.
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.715%(ALLOT 61.66%)
Sep-29 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.715%(ALLOT 61.66%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 25.38% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.35% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.00
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.860%(ALLOT 70.07%)
Sep-29 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.860%(ALLOT 70.07%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 34.19% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.01% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.80% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.74
