USD: Speaker Johnson Eyes Tuesday Floor Vote On Budget Resolution
Punchbowl News reporting on X that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is eyeing a Tuesday floor vote for a budget resolution to unlock reconciliation on a mammoth package that will cover the bulk of President Donald Trump's agenda. The timeline is a tight turnaround for the House, with at least 10 Republican House Reps reportedly wavering on the package due to concerns over deficit implications and speculated cuts to welfare programmes.
- Comes after the Senate passed a budget resolution to underpin a narrower defence/border security/energy bill early this morning following an all-night 'vote-a-rama' in the Senate. That resolution, endorsed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Budget Committee Chair Lindsay Graham (R-SC), will provide optionality as a 'Plan B' if Johnson can't whip backing for his broader blueprint- the preferred strategy for President Trump.
- If the House successfully passes their budget blueprint, horse trading will get underway to synchronise the two chambers around an identical resolution that will unlock the reconciliation process – the procedural mechanism by which the governing party can bypass the Senate filibuster to pass legislation along party lines.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 2: 109-16+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-04/109-06 High Jan 21 / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 108-17+ @ 16:52 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and the recovery that started Jan 13, appears to be a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17+. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-16+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Another Upside ERM5 Structure
ERM5 98.00 / 98.125 / 98.25 call fly, bought for 1.25 in 11.5k
- The latest upside ERM5 option structure this week.
- Calls outnumber puts by 4.5 to 1 today.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan23 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0295-00(E2.7bln), $1.0400(E1.9bln), $1.0425-40(E2.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y155.00($1.7bln), Y156.00($987mln), Y156.15-20($561mln), Y156.50-60($734mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2500(Gbp713mln), $1.2565(Gbp748mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6200-05(A$1.8bln), $0.6260(A$695mln), $0.6300(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5660-75(N$1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4390-05($1.6bln), C$1.4450($1.1bln)
