EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spanish Inflation Slightly Higher-than-expected In July
Jul-30 07:00
* Spanish flash July HICP was a tenth above consensus on a rounded basis at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons...
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GILTS: Opening calls
Jun-30 06:57
Gilt Calls, 92.79/92.96.
CROSS ASSET: Gold Edges towards $3,300.00, the Dollar extends losses
Jun-30 06:47
- Gold is firming back towards $3300.00 handle, a Dollar led move with the latter printing fresh broader lows versus the EUR, SGD, CZK, INR, MXN, SEK, THB, and ZAR.
- The resistance in EURUSD comes at 1.1753 High Jun 27.
STIR: Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Through Dec Still Priced
Jun-30 06:41
GBP STIRs consolidate the modest dovish move seen post-SONIA settlement on Friday.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 20bp of easing for August, 26bp through September, 43bp through November and 53bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
- Those that hold dovish views have not been able to force a sustainable move through 55bp of cuts through year-end in recent sessions.
- Our baseline view continues to look for 2 cuts (August and November) through year-end at this stage, although risks seem skewed to the dovish side given the recent evolution of labour market data.
- In line final Q1 GDP, a wider-than-expected current account deficit and lower tier Lloyds Business Barometer data did little for markets at the open.
- Little of note on the UK calendar for the remainder of the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.015 | -20.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.955 | -26.2 |
Nov-25 | 3.786 | -43.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.688 | -52.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.552 | -66.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.509 | -70.8 |
