POWER: Spanish Hydropower Stocks Fall Above 5-Year Average Rate
Oct-14 11:55
Spanish hydropower reserves last week - calendar week 41 – declined by 1 percentage point, above the five-year average decline, to 53.1% of capacity, data from the Spanish energy ministry showed.
- Stocks declined on average by 0.14 percentage points in the past five years.
- The surplus to last year’s level narrowed to 4.6 points, from 6 points the week prior.
- The surplus over the five-year average also narrowed to 13.2 points, from 14 points the week before.
- Power demand in Spain last week declined by 257MW to 25.05GW.
- Output from hydropower reservoirs edged up by 137MW to 1.76GW. Output from pumped storage was stale at 1.09GW last week, while run-of-river generation was also stable at 358MW.
- Gas-fired power generation rebounded by 682MW last week to 7.42GW.
- Wind generation in Spain last week rose by 892MW to 5.28GW, while solar PV output fell by 539MW to 6.32GW.
- Spanish nuclear generation last week declined by 968MW to 4.92GW.
- The 1.06GW Cofrentes 1 nuclear plant will be offline on 12-15 October in a refuelling outage. The 1GW Almaraz 2 plant will also be offline on 13-18 October in a refuelling outage, while planned maintenance at 1.06GW Vandellos 2 are scheduled to start on 25 October.
- There was no precipitation in Huesca, near Spain’s hydro-intensive region, last week.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests broadly no precipitation this week again, compared with the seasonal average of 16.2mm.
- Mean temperatures in Madrid this week are forecast at 17.2-19C this week, above the seasonal average.
- Wind output in Spain for the remainder of this week (Wed-Sun) is forecast at 1.37-3.32GW during baseload. Solar PV output is forecast at 7.47-11.27GW during peak load for the remainder of this week according to SpotRenewables.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
Sep-12 21:45
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
Sep-12 21:16
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Sep-12 21:07
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
