EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spanish HICP/CPI Undershoot But Core CPI Firmer
Aug-29 07:01
Spain HICP and CPI inflation both undershot expectations in preliminary August data as they held steady in Y/Y terms. However, core CPI is estimated to have accelerated a tenth to 2.4% Y/Y, back to April rates.
- HICP inflation is estimated to have held steady at 2.7% Y/Y (Bloomberg cons 2.8%) in the preliminary August release.
- Core HICP inflation is estimated at 2.4% Y/Y.
- CPI inflation is also estimated to have held steady at 2.7% Y/Y (Bloomberg cons 2.8) in the Aug prelim.
- It came 0.0% M/M (Bloomberg cons 0.1) after -0.1% M/M.
- Core CPI (ex unprocessed food & energy products) meanwhile accelerated a tenth to 2.4% Y/Y. It’s back at April levels after 2.2% through May-Jun and having recently bottomed at 2.0% Y/Y in March.
- The press release notes upward drivers from fuel prices (prices fell less than in Aug 2024) and downward drivers from food and non-alcoholic beverages (decreased more than the previous year) and electricity (increased less sharply than in August of last year).
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MNI: SWISS KOF JUL ECONOMIC BAROMETER 101.1
Jul-30 07:00
- MNI: SWISS KOF JUL ECONOMIC BAROMETER 101.1
MNI: SPAIN JUL FLASH HICP -0.4% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y
Jul-30 07:00
- MNI: SPAIN JUL FLASH HICP -0.4% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN JUL FLASH CPI -0.1% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN JUL FLASH CORE CPI +2.3% Y/Y
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spanish Inflation Slightly Higher-than-expected In July
Jul-30 07:00
- Spanish flash July HICP was a tenth above consensus on a rounded basis at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons, 2.3% prior). Core HICP (excluding energy and unprocessed foods) was estimated at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior).
- Flash CPI was also 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons, 2.3% prior), with core CPI at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.2% cons and prior).
- The slighty higher-than-expected core CPI reading suggests services, non-energy industrial goods or processed foods components were behind the surprise in July, even if most of the annual acceleration came from energy. The press release notes that the Y/Y increase “is mainly due to the increase in electricity prices, compared to the decrease in July 2024 and, to a lesser extent, to the increases in fuel prices”.
- There was some uncertainty amongst analysts on the impact of public transport prices on July inflation, but unfortunately there is no colour on core components in the flash release. Final July data is due on August 13.
- For context, Spain represents 12% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2025
