ASIA STOCKS: South Korean Inflows Firmer, Muted Trends Elsewhere

TYM5 has traded a little lower with a range of 111-26 to 111.30+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 111-27+, down 0-01 from the previous close. No Cash trading today with Japan out.

• Bloomberg- “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debt-management team is expected to keep plans for sales of longer-dated securities steady, despite recent market swings.”
• “The quarterly supply announcement will set the size of upcoming auctions, including 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities, and may provide guidance on debt-limit considerations.”
• “Despite having criticized his predecessor Janet Yellen for tilting US debt toward short-dated Treasuries, Bessent since taking office in January has said the department is “a long way” from replacing them with longer-term debt.”
• Microsoft and Meta will headline earnings on Wednesday, followed by Apple, Amazon, and Eli Lilly on Thursday, these reports should hopefully provide the market with some clarity and will dictate whether this bounce in risk is able to continue or falter.
• The 10-year Yield, has put in a lower high around 4.40% and has broken through the recent support around 4.25%. The next support is towards the 4.10 area which should find supply once more as the market will continue to look for higher term premium while uncertainty remains elevated.
• Data/Events : US GDP, ISM Manufacturing, NFM payrolls the main events this week. 

CTV has said that PM Carney will hold government following elections but again it will be a minority government. Elections Canada has allocated 341 of the 343 districts with Carney’s Liberals leading in 157 with 43.3% of the vote and so even they win the remaining 2 seats will be short of the 172 needed for a majority. It does look like they will hold more than the 151 they had in the last parliament though. 

• The Conservatives are leading in 148 (41.3%) gaining 28 but not enough to take government. The major parties benefited from a swing away from smaller ones with Bloc Quebecois, New Democrats and the Greens likely to hold fewer districts.
• The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback when Canadian networks called the election for Carney signalling stability in the fight against US tariffs, however it has now given up those gains as the US dollar has broadly strengthened again (BBDXY +0.2%). USDCAD fell to 1.3809 but is now up 0.2% on the day to 1.3855.

Aussie is generally outperforming the G10 benefitting from today’s better risk tone with equities rallying, which may be in response to reports of some easing of US auto tariffs but there was little reaction at the time. AUDUSD has given up its gains though to be down 0.1% at 0.6423 after today’s peak of 0.6450. It had fallen to 0.6422 earlier in the session. The US dollar is 0.1% higher on the day. 

• AUDJPY is up 0.1% to 91.47 after a high of 91.69. The risk-averse Swiss franc and yen are currently underperforming the G10.
• AUDEUR peaked at 0.5649 and is now up 0.1% at 0.5635. AUDGBP is flat though at 0.4785 off today’s high of 0.4798.
• AUDNZD rose to 1.0785 earlier but is now around 1.0770 to be up 0.1% today.
• Equities are rallying with the ASX up 0.8% and Hang Seng +0.7% but CSI 300 down 0.2%. The S&P e-mini has reversed earlier losses to be up 0.1%. Oil prices are down with WTI -0.5% to $61.72/bbl. Copper is up 0.4% and iron ore steady around $98/t.
• Later US April consumer confidence, March merchandise trade, JOLTS job openings, inventories and February house prices print, as well as the April European Commission survey, Spanish Q1 GDP and preliminary April CPI. The ECB’s Cipollone and Donnery speak.