ASIA: South Korea, Taiwan PMIs Point To Modest Global Trade Growth
As we have noted in the past, the average PMI prints for South Korea and Taiwan have a reasonable relationship with global trade growth. The chart below plots the update post this morning's PMI prints against y/y global trade volumes.
- The PMI average is holding close to recent highs, just under 50.0. Some slippage in the South Korean PMI, back to 49.4, has been offset by a further recovery in the Taiwan print, now up to 50.2. This is highs in the Taiwan PMI back to mid 2022.
- The detail in the South Korean PMI was ok, with output and new orders both rising. The detail for Taiwan showed a healthy rise in output (to 51.4), while new orders were also up.
- Overall, the PMI prints suggest a further modest recovery in global trade volumes. This is a positive for the global growth backdrop, although it is certainty not pointing to a v shaped recovery (like we saw in 2020) (see MNI Export Growth Recovering But Improvement Not Uniform).
Fig 1: Avg South Korean and Taiwan PMIs Versus Global Trade Volumes Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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