EM CEEMEA CREDIT: South Africa: Sept. Manuf. PMI, supportive

Apr-29 tap:

• Spread set at MS+9 (guidance was MS+10bps area)
• Books at E3.3bln
• Coupon: 3.500% (150 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
• Maturity: 11 April 2029
• ISIN: EU000A2SCAL3

Feb-34 tap:

• Spread set at MS+33 (guidance was MS+34bps area)
• Books at E3.7bln
• Coupon: 2.875% (207 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
• Maturity: 13 February 2034
• ISIN: EU000A2SCAN9 

Across both tranches:

• Size: E3.5bln maximum combined (MNI expected E3bln)
• Books combined: E7bn (incl. E500m JLMs)
• Settlement: 8 September 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: LBBW / NOMURA (DM/B&D) / TD
• Denoms: EUR 1,000 x 1,000
• Target market: Professionals / Eligible Counterparties only (all distribution channels), each as defined in MiFID II
• Issuer: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
• Ratings: Aaa (stable) / AA- (stable) / AA-
• Risk Weighting: 0%
• Format: RegS / Bearer Notes (TEFRA rules apply, no communications with or into the U.S.)
• Timing: Books close 11:00LDN | 12:00CET

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold is trading sharply higher today as the metal begins the week on a bullish note. The primary trend direction remains up and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3371.9, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $0.35 or +0.55% at $64.34
• Natural Gas up $0.03 or +1.1% at $3.03
• Gold spot up $26.66 or +0.77% at $3474.77
• Copper up $1.3 or +0.28% at $460.4
• Silver up $0.96 or +2.42% at $40.6828
• Platinum up $22.27 or +1.62% at $1393.87

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. Note that support at 5376.13, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. A break of it resumes the uptrend. S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6543.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6332.47, the 50-day EMA. The latest pullback appears corrective.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 529.68 pts or -1.24% at 42188.79 and the TOPIX ended 11.99 pts lower or -0.39% at 3063.19.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.604 pts or +0.46% at 3875.531 and the HANG SENG ended 539.8 pts higher or +2.15% at 25617.42.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 132.22 pts or +0.55% at 24034.43, FTSE 100 higher by 28.4 pts or +0.31% at 9215.72, CAC 40 up 35.54 pts or +0.46% at 7739.44 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 22.17 pts or +0.41% at 5373.9.
• Dow Jones mini up 66 pts or +0.14% at 45667, S&P 500 mini up 9.75 pts or +0.15% at 6482.5, NASDAQ mini up 23 pts or +0.1% at 23484.75.