OPTIONS: Sonia Structures Predominant With Much Of Europe On Holiday

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has indicated to reporters that President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be “effective immediately” following Trump’s White House Rose Garden announcement tomorrow, expected to take place around 16:00 ET 21:00 BST.

• Asked: “Are [the tariffs] all going to take effect this week”, Leavitt says: “My understanding is that the tariff announcement will come tomorrow and they will be effective immediately and the President has been teasing this for quite some time…”
• Leavitt: “Tomorrow will be the day. He’s talking about it for a while and as a result you’ve seen [various companies] make a commitment [to changing manufacturing policy].”
• Asked what kind of market indicators Trump is looking at to gauge the success of his tariff plan, Leavitt notes that Trump has said that the stock market “is a snapshot of time” and says that although Main Street is the focus of tariffs, “Wall Street will be just fine.”
• Asked if Trump is considering extending the pause on Canadian and Mexican tariffs, which expires tomorrow, Leavitt says: “I’ll let the President speak on the specifics tomorrow,” but stresses the dangers of Fentanyl – the justification of the tariffs.
• Leavitt confirms that there have been "quite a few countries" that have called Trump and his team to discuss tariffs. She notes: "There is one country the President cares about and its the United States of America..."   

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has stated at the White House daily press conference that April 2, the day President Donald Trump is scheduled to announce his “reciprocal tariff” regime, will go down as “one of the most important days in modern American history.”

• Asked if Trump has “made up his mind” on the level of tariffs, Leavitt says: “He has made a decision and a determination… and he is going to announce that decision tomorrow…”
• Leavitt adds: “He is with his trade and tariff team right now perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people… and you will find out in about 24 hours from now.”
• Asked if tariffs will go ahead on April 3, as scheduled, Leavitt says: “Correct. Yes they will.”
• Leavitt says the “days of being ripped off are over”, and claims that Trump will offer companies the “lowest taxes, energy costs, [and] regulation if they make their products in the United States and hire American workers.”
• When asked if Trump will alter what he’s planning if countries/companies change their policies before tomorrow's announcement, Leavitt reiterates that no tariffs will be applied to companies that manufacture in the US. She declines to elaborate on if a statement of future intent will be sufficient for Trump to ease tariffs.
• She says Trump is “always up for a phone call” but stresses that tomorrow’s action is designed to address historical imbalances.

The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now estimate for Q1 GDP has fallen again in the latest update, to -3.7% (vs -2.8% in the prior estimate). The gold-adjusted estimate is -1.4% (was -0.5% prior).

• While the headline estimate is still skewed heavily by the gold import factor, interestingly for the first time in these updates, real private consumption is seen contracting (-0.6%), amid an even softer domestic demand estimate.
• "After this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau and incorporation of the available March data into the models’ dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from Institute for Supply Management and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined from 1.5 percent to 0.4 percent."