SONIA OPTIONS: Sonia Ratio Call Condor

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3810 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3764 @ 08:05 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.3760/27 Low Sep 5 / Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD on Monday resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

Statistics Norway has revised up its Norges Bank terminal rate forecast to 3.50%, from 3.25% in the June projection round. Stats Norway’s head of research notes that “A marked upturn in the Norwegian economy and surprisingly high wage growth mean that we only expect one further interest rate cut this year and two more next year. This will bring the key rate down to 3.5 per cent towards the end of 2026”

• The Norges Bank decision, which includes an updated MPR and set of forecasts, is due on Thursday. It’s set to be a close call, but we currently lean against consensus in favour of a hold at 4.25%. Full preview here
• Statistics Norway writes that “Household purchasing power has increased and income growth will continue for the next years. In addition, the state has gained greater purchasing power because of the enormous increase in the petroleum fund, which provides scope for a continued expansionary fiscal policy in the near term”
• Additionally, it highlights that wage growth has been “surprisingly high” in 2025. The 2025 full-year wage growth projection has thus been revised up to 4.9% (well above Norges Bank’s 4.5% forecast).
• Stats Norway plays down the recent rise in the LFS unemployment rate, emphasising that this has been driven by labour force increases.

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6700 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• PRICE: 0.6666 @ 07:57 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.6568/6531 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6531, the 50-day EMA.