ASIA FX: Some USD/Asia Pairs In SEA Challenging 20-day EMAs
In SEA FX markets, the USD has seen support emerge, which is consistent with trends against the majors and elsewhere in the region. THB has lost close to 0.65%, while PHP is down nearly 0.60%. Indonesian markets are out today (the 1 month USD/IDR NDF is +0.35% higher). Some pairs are starting to test key EMA resistance points (the 20-day EMAs). Data flow has once again been light.
- USD/THB was last near 32.84, up around 0.65% versus end Wednesday levels. Session highs rest at 32.893. The 20-day EMA is close to 33.00, with a breach above this level likely needed to entice more short covering in the pair. Earlier mid-May highs were at 33.48 as well.
- USD/PHP is back above 55.80, challenging 20-day EMA resistance (close to 55.77). This pair is now comfortably above recent lows around 55.145.
- USD/MYR got close to 4.2600 earlier, before retracing lower, we were last near 4.2430. The 20-day EMA is back higher at 4.775.
- USD/SGD got to highs earlier of 1.2980, which was through the 20-day EMA (near 1.2960) but we track lower now, last close to 1.2935.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 28, 2025
Greece is due to sell bills today, while Italy, Germany and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E17.0bln in first round operations, up from E14.6bln last week.
- This morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 13-week Aug 1, 2025 GTB.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Corrective Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 5263.01 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 2: 5165.00 High Apr 3
- RES 1: 5150.00 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 5122.00 @ 06:10 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 4664.00 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5101.76. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
CHINA: Country Wrap : Bessent Pushes Back on China
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “all aspects” of the US government are in contact with China but that it’s up to Beijing to take the first step in de-escalating the tariff fight with the US due to the imbalance of trade between the two nations. “We’ll see where this goes,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC. “As I’ve repeatedly said, I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, so these 125% tariffs are unsustainable.” (source BBG)
- China International Capital Corp., is seeking to tap growing demand for cross-border financial services in the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia as the firm pushes its global expansion. Beijing-based CICC planning to open in Dubai to target sovereign wealth funds and conglomerates in the Gulf region (source BBG)
- The Hang Seng rose just +0.12% today despite a broader regionally positive day whilst the CSI 300 fell -0.13%. Shanghai Comp was down -0.03% and Shenzhen held onto modest gains of +0.35%
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2029 Per USD; Estimate 7.2803
- A positive day for bonds following the injection of liquidity in the OMO. CGB 10yr -1bp lower at 1.63%
