STIR: Some Analysts See Incoming Data Supporting Dovish Recommendations
Oct-29 12:34
Summarising a few analysts views on front-end EUR rates ahead of tomorrow’s decision:
- Goldman Sachs: “With recent data and communication skewing slightly dovishly, we view risks to market pricing for 25Q4-26Q2 as tilted to the dovish side.”….“We expect the front-end to re-steepen as near-term risks around the ECB policy path combine with improving forward expectations for growth. We continue to recommend front-end steepeners, such as ERH6/ERH7”.
- Morgan Stanley: “We see limited potential for next week’s ECB meeting to trigger a meaningful market reaction and we keep our set of recommended trades: Feb-Mar ECB flattener, ERH6 call spread, and received 1y1y”….“However, with the ECB set to reassess its economic outlook again in December and our economists anticipating downside risks starting to materialize in the next round of data releases, we think data could start playing a more significant role for the market, supporting our long positioning.”
- Danske Bank: “While we see upside risks to current market pricing as we expect the ECB to remain on hold throughout 2026, we have recently taken profit on our payer positions in the short end of the EUR-swap curve as we see the risks as more balanced”.
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BOE: Ramsden doesn't appear to be guiding away from a November cut vote
Sep-29 12:32
- Dave Ramsden has finished his opening comments. Main things are that he says he sees wage settlements in 2026 getting back to inflation target-consistent levels. That risks to inflation are balanced, Bank Rate is still restrictive and that "gradual and careful" cuts remain appropriate.
- He still seems on the dovish side and does not appear to be guiding away from a vote for a November cut so far.
EQUITY OPTIONS: Commerzbank Put buyer
Sep-29 12:29
CBK (20th Mar) 26p, bought for 1.35 in 2.5k.
BOE: Ramsden: Balanced risks inflation; "Gradual and careful" still appropriate
Sep-29 12:29
- "If you assume that these various regulated and other price rises are not repeated this year, which I think is a fair assumption, we should see and we should see headlines that services, inflation, starting to come down much more materially and that will be supported by the fact that underlying services, inflation continues when you look at higher frequency measures to be on a disinflationary path."
- "I do remain confident that we're going to get inflation back to target with the current setting of interest rates which are still in restrictive territory, and also given the market expectations that we condition our forecast on."
- "I do see the central case, which is what we've got in our forecast two years out of inflation coming back to target to be the most likely outcome."
- Ramsden talked through the Agent's pay survey being on track this year (3.7%). And noted that "those are also then pointing to settlements being lower, so closer to 3% further out into next year, which will be getting down to target consistent rates."
- "I've been surprised by the how long it's taken for that wage setting behaviour to come back in line. So I don't rule out that there are more structural factors at play in our labour market."
- "For me, the risks to the inflation outlook in the UK are balanced."
- "The UK inflation outlook with those risk to inflation balanced, I think the gradual and careful approach that the MPC has taken to removing policy restraint remains appropriate, and I see scope for further removal of policy restraint looking ahead."
