FED: SOMA Holdings Little Changed As Runoff Temporarily Slows (1/2)
The Fed's latest H.4.1 release showed virtually no change in the central bank's asset holdings, including no runoff of Treasury/MBS holdings (which have been running at an average of $25B/15B monthly, respectively). Over the last 4 weeks, balance sheet runoff has dropped the size of SOMA holdings by around $25B, again, mostly MBS. That slowdown in the pace, which is dependent on the schedule of maturing Treasuries, will only be temporary.
- Additionally there was no discernable change in takeup of the Fed's emergency lending programs, which are negligible at this point (discount window take up is just $3B, down $0.1B on the week).
Shifts in Fed liabilities show a $22B rise in reserves, bringing the 4-week net change to negative $104B - leaving them at a still "abundant" level (see next note).
- The pullback in reserves has come alongside a rise in the Treasury General Account offsetting declining usage of the overnight reverse repo facility.
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BONDS: NZGBS: Yesterday’s Sell-Off Extends Ahead Of US CPI Later Today
In local morning trade, NZGBs are 3-4bps cheaper, extending yesterday’s QSBO-induced sell-off.
- Overnight, US yields finished slightly mixed after US PPI printed softer than expected. They were lower at the front end but higher at the back end. The 10-year yield finished at 4.79%.
- Focus turns to tomorrow's headline CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December. Core goods inflation will be closely looked at amidst heavy focus on potential tariffs under the second Trump administration but also with a further near-term dampening factor from continued US dollar appreciation. Fed Beige Book is released at 1400ET.
- Swap rates are 6-7bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-7bps firmer across meetings. 44bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 103bps by November 2025. Pricing for the November meeting is some 35bps firmer than Friday’s closing level.
- Today, the local calendar is empty.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
ARS: A$ Ticks Up, But Bearish Technical Set Up Remains
AUD/USD attempted to break back above 0.6200 late in Tuesday Asia Pac trade, but found selling interest. Dips were supported sub 0.6170, keeping overall ranges fairly tight. We track near 0.6190 in early Wednesday dealings (up around 0.20% for Tuesday's session). Broader USD indices were softer on Tuesday, the BBDXY index down 0.44%, largely thanks to a rebound in the single currency, with EUR/USD up 0.60%, regaining the 1.0300 handle.
- There is little change in terms of the AUD/USD technical backdrop, with bearish conditions still intact. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6240, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6358.
- US yields were mixed, softer at the front end, but supported at the back end, the 10yr yield holding above 4.78%. The US PPI print was softer than expected, which comes ahead of tonight's key US CPI print. EUR/USD was also aided by firmer German yields. AUD/EUR is back closer to 0.6000, but holding within recent ranges, while EUR/GBP rose above 0.8400, fresh multi month highs.
- Global equity market sentiment was mostly positive, although aggregate moves weren't large. AUD/JPY is a little higher, last near 97.80, but remains within recent ranges.
- Commodity indices saw the aggregate Bloomberg index down 0.27%, as oil lost some ground. The base metals sub index was flat.
- The local data calendar is empty today, with domestic focus on tomorrow's Dec jobs data.
US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK - Ultra Likely Buyer
- +4,218 WNH5 contracts traded at 115-12, post time 07:51.21 AEDT. DV01 $750k. Contract last trades 115-16, up +09 for the session, after hitting a session low of 114-27 earlier
